There is much food for thought in the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll which reflects the public's attitude to a variety of choices in the coming election. Fine Gael and Labour face a significant credibility gap in convincing voters of their capacity to form a government, even though party support has placed them in a challenging position.
And the psychological advantage enjoyed by the Coalition Government may be eroded by a collapse in support for the Progressive Democrats. Fianna Fáil remains the most potent centre of power.
Elements of desire, uncertainty and frustration are evident in the contrast between what voters would like to see happen in the election and what they believe may take place in its aftermath. Nearly half of those questioned expected a return of the present Government. A majority of Green Party supporters would prefer an alliance with Fine Gael and Labour, while 85 per cent of Sinn Féin voters leaned towards an arrangement with Fianna Fáil.
The electorate is keenly aware that the coalition alliances now on offer could change, depending on the election results. And while majorities would not favour the formation of governments involving Fianna Fáil and the Labour Party or Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, they believe that Bertie Ahern, Pat Rabbitte and Gerry Adams would be prepared to enter into such alliances in the event of a hung Dáil. Given the sudden surge in Green Party support, it too may anticipate advances from Fianna Fáil.
The gap between what people would like to see happen in the election and what they believe the outcome will be has widened significantly within the past year. This public uncertainty reflects a failure by Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte to convince voters of the viability of their project and of their unswerving commitment to it. It also reflects Fianna Fáil's public willingness to consider a wide range of suitors, if its first choice of the Progressive Democrats proves to be unviable. Only in Fine Gael does a majority believe that an alternative government, involving Labour and possibly the Green Party, is most likely to take power after the election.
The lack of self-belief among the opposition parties will have to be countered if Mr Kenny and Mr Rabbitte are to have a realistic chance of leading an alternative government. But, with more than one-quarter of the electorate uncommitted to existing coalition options, there is plenty of material to work with in the course of the coming months. The volatile mix of uncertainty and irritation within the electorate might go either way.