Because of the AIDS pandemic, within three years, most Africans will not live to see their 48th birthday. In Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland, life expectancy is less than 40 years as a result of the disease - half that in the richest parts of the world. Sub-Saharan Africa has an estimated 28 million of the world's 40 million infected people; last year 2.3 million people died there, out of a total of 20 million deaths worldwide since 1981.
It is a disaster for these societies, whose fabric will be profoundly affected for the next generation, even if urgent and appropriate action is taken. Fourteen thousand scientists and policy makers concerned with the issues involved began a meeting in Barcelona this week, against the background of the latest report from the United Nations containing these and other shocking statistics. They must consider how best to handle the crisis, in the knowledge that it is still at a relatively early stage of development and could spread to the major population centres of China, India and Russia if crucial preventative action is not taken. Seventy million people will be infected over the next 20 years on current trends
There is now reliable evidence that the growth of the disease can definitely be checked by proper policies. In Africa, this has been shown to be the case in Senegal and Uganda. Well-publicised early awareness campaigns, sex education in schools, family counselling, and the use of condoms have made a real difference. So, more gradually, has the provision of anti-retroviral drugs which can contain progress of the disease. But, at an estimated €357 per annum, the cost of providing them remains out of the reach of most victims in sub-Saharan Africa. Looking ahead, the Barcelona conference yesterday heard news of a new generation of drugs which promise to deal much more effectively with the disease.
Major initiatives are required to bring those costs down by preventing pharmaceutical companies from exploiting the technologies and knowledge involved. So far, the UN's appeals for funds to finance preventative campaigns and provide drugs have met with only a minimal response from rich countries, notably at the recent G8 summit in Canada. Poverty, hunger and ignorance compound the problem, as does bad governance and state indebtedness.
Looking beyond Africa the UN specialists are fearful AIDS-HIV could spread to China, India and Russia. They draw heart from successful preventative campaigns in Brazil which show its growth can be arrested with the help of cheap drugs produced by state laboratories.