TDs must wonder if geography is destiny as plum jobs are handed out

The Cabinet is now more urban-based than ever, writes Mark Hennessy , Political Correspondent

The Cabinet is now more urban-based than ever, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent

Geography has always played a role in the selection of Cabinets, and it did so again yesterday - though perhaps not to the extent expected.

Following the changes, Kildare, Cork South West and Tipperary North lose Cabinet representation, while Limerick East, DúLaoghaire and Wicklow gain.

In addition, the country's most middle-class and politically changeable constituency, Dublin South, gains extra influence with the promotion to Chief Whip of Mr Tom Kitt.

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The listing by constituency of the changes highlights one rather curious, if perhaps unintended, outcome: the Cabinet is now more urban-based than before.

Promotion, however, will bring with it a price.

The elevation of Willie O'Dea (Limerick East) to the Cabinet depended on the Taoiseach removing Michael Smith from Defence.

Now that he is in the Cabinet, Mr O'Dea will be expected to share his vote next time out to ensure that Fianna Fáil takes three out of five seats.

Such a change will be won with difficulty from Mr O'Dea, who husbands votes in his constituency as a gardener would a prize marrow.

The same situation does not apply in Mary Hanafin's Dún Laoghaire, since Fianna Fáil would be doing extraordinarily well to add to its existing two seats.

While Mr Dick Roche's appointment as Minister for the Environment may not add to the party tally in Wicklow, it should make it easier to replace his colleague, Mr Joe Jacobs, who is retiring.

Although the influence of geography on the Cabinet is significant, if not critical, it is clear that it played a decisive role in the Minister of State changes.

Cork South Central TD Mr Batt O'Keeffe, who has to move constituency next time out, will breathe a sign of relief following his call.

Under the constituency boundary review, Mr O'Keeffe's Ballincollig base on the outskirts of Cork City is moving into neighbouring Cork North West.

However, the promotion will put FF's two current TDs in North West, Mr Donal Moynihan and Mr Michael Moynihan, on the spot.

The constituency will be one of the toughest in the country, given the presence of Fine Gael TD Mr Gerard Murphy and the return of ex-TD Mr Michael Creed.

In Cavan/Monaghan, the long-awaited promotion of Mr Brendan Smith will help Fianna Fáil in its ever-intensifying battle with Sinn Féin.

The Taoiseach's decision to promote Clare TD Mr Tony Killeen was widely welcomed by TDs on all sides of the House last night.

Highly regarded, the Corofin-based politician has performed well as chairman of the Education and Science Committee and could be a useful addition to the junior ranks.

In the days running up to the reshuffle, it had been speculated that Mr Killeen's promotion would force a move in the other direction for his constituency colleague, Ms Síle de Valera.

In the end, Mr Ahern decided to have both, though it is questionable if the move will have any impact on FF's future Dáil representation.

The decision to promote Mr Conor Lenihan is not explicable simply by geography, although it could be argued that Dublin's southside had been poorly represented at junior ministerial rank.

Energetic and articulate, Mr Lenihan could have benefited from the Taoiseach's decision not to promote his brother, Brian, into the Cabinet.

The Dublin South West constituency, which was cut to a four-seater last time out, is unlikely to see seismic change in the next election.In 2002, FF won nearly 39 per cent of the first-preference vote, and it would have to suffer some losses to that next time before Mr Lenihan, or his running mate, Mr Charlie O'Connor, would be at risk.

Kildare South TD Mr Seán Power, who was tipped in the latter stages to become Government Chief Whip, eventually received a junior ministerial job.

The Newbridge-based politician will be expected, no doubt, to play a strong role in Fianna Fáil's campaign in the upcoming Kildare North by-election.

However, it is doubtful if the Kildare North inhabitants of Maynooth, Celbridge, Sallins and Naas will display much gratitude to Mr Ahern over Mr Power's rise.

The decision to drop Dr Jim McDaid from the junior ministerial team could hit FF's vote in Donegal North-East, where Sinn Féin should prove a stronger threat next time.

In Donegal South West, Fianna Fáil definitely faces a threat from Sinn Féin in the shape of Mr Pearse Doherty, who fought such a superb European election campaign.

Currently, Donegal has one Cabinet minister, Ms Mary Coughlan, who now heads Agriculture, and a Minister of State, Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher.

The Taoiseach may yet seek to improve FF's fire-power in the constituency by offering Mr Gallagher responsibility for fisheries when he doles out the junior portfolios.

Given Fianna Fáil's poor performance in Connacht in the local and European elections, the Taoiseach's decision not to offer promotions to the region is odd.

Sligo/Leitrim TD Mr Jimmy Devins and Roscommon's Mr Michael Finneran had been the subject of speculation in the weeks running up to the changes.

In 2002, the Taoiseach failed to rejuvenate the party's list of Cabinet candidates by failing to make wide-ranging changes to the junior ranks.

Last night, he did better, but he decided not to offer any preferment to any of the TDs elected for the first time in 2002. Elevation comes slowly in the Ahern era.