Stephen Collins: Fine Gael-led minority government the only option

More than a month after the election, the penny finally appears to have dropped in the political world that the only feasible government is a Fine Gael-led minority administration underwritten by a guarantee of survival from Fianna Fáil.

It was fairly obvious on the day of the election count that it would ultimately come to this, but it has taken more than 40 days of political manoeuvring for the mists to clear. The only question now is whether Fianna Fáil is prepared to give the kind of guarantee that would enable a Fine Gael-led minority government to get a budget through the Dáil and survive the inevitable votes of confidence likely to be tabled over the next year or two.

The other side of that equation is whether Fine Gael can develop the kind of conciliatory approach that will give due respect to Fianna Fáil for behaving in the national interest.

That will also involve concrete proposals for doing politics in a new way that will give the main Opposition party a serious input into the direction of policy.

Whether that will be enough to persuade Fianna Fáil to give the kind of guarantee being sought will only become clear when representatives of the two parties meet to thrash out their differences.

Micheál Martin is insisting that “parity of esteem” between the two parties involves a Fine Gael commitment to underpin a Fianna Fáil minority government if the boot is on the other foot.

This is dismissed by Fine Gael Ministers who say the offer of a partnership government involved parity of esteem but, as this was rejected out of hand, a minority government led by the biggest party is the only option.

Over the past few days both sides have been so quick to take umbrage at the language and behaviour of the other that at times it is difficult to see how any kind of understanding will emerge.

However, politics is the art of the possible and it is hard to believe that the two biggest parties, which have dominated politics in the State for almost a century, cannot find a formula to make it work.

No grand coalition

While Enda Kenny’s offer to Martin during the week of a full partnership government involving Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil bit the dust very quickly, it did serve to bring matters to a head.

The Fianna Fáil rejection of the offer within 24 hours appeared to come as a surprise to Fine Gael despite the fact that Martin had said before, during and after the election that he would not lead his party into a grand coalition.

Kenny and his Ministers seemed genuinely taken aback by the speed and vehemence of the Fianna Fáil rejection and appeared genuinely puzzled that Martin was not won over by the historic nature of the deal available on the 100th anniversary of the 1916 Rising.

Dialogue of the deaf

Their response indicated that the big parties have been engaged in a dialogue of the deaf since the election, but the emphatic nature of the rejection cleared up any lingering doubts about the possibility of a grand coalition.

The next step towards the formation of a government will require Fine Gael to get a firm commitment from eight or more Independents that they are prepared to vote for Enda Kenny for taoiseach.

There have been clear signals from Fianna Fáil over the past two days that they may be willing to abstain in that vote to enable Kenny to be elected as taoiseach of a Fine Gael-led government which is likely to have some Independent cabinet ministers in its ranks.

What has not been clear is what it will take to persuade Fianna Fáil to give the kind of reassurance being sought to give a minority government some security for a couple of years.

Kenny and his Ministers are adamant that before they travel down the road of putting a minority government in place a firm commitment from Fianna Fáil will have to emerge.

The Independents are just as determined to get that kind of commitment from the main Opposition party before they throw in their lot with Fine Gael.

At this stage everybody knows what is required but whether they are all willing to do it is the big question. If not, the only alternative will be another general election.

A lot of drama will probably have to be played out before that happens and President Michael D Higgins may well move centre stage in an effort to try and force the two sides to do a deal.

The President could well refuse a request from Kenny to dissolve the Dáil in the hope that that would persuade Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to come to some sort of accommodation, whether that be a coalition deal or an understanding to underpin a minority government.

General election

While he can refuse a dissolution, the President has no constitutional role in government formation. That is purely the prerogative of the Dáil and if the elected TDs cannot come up with a formula to put a government in place another election will be the only solution.

Until Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the relevant Independents sort out how a stable minority government can be put in place the stalemate looks set to continue but the process cannot go on for much longer.

It may not be sorted out by the time the Dáil meets again on Thursday but if it cannot be resolved the following week the country may well be on an inexorable path to a general election despite the desire of almost all TDs to avoid it.