ARE we facing the fearful prospect of Drumcree Mark Three? This afternoon, Sir Patrick Mayhew is due to make a statement to the House of Commons on Dr Peter North's Review of Parades and Public Meetings in Northern Ireland. The political will or lack of it - which the British government shows in squaring up to the problems of the marching season could have a decisive influence on progress towards peace or war on this island.
The word is out that British ministers will use the excuse of an imminent general election to postpone enacting legislation which would remove the responsibility for making decisions on marches from the RUC and place it in the hands of an independent tribunal chaired by a High Court judge.
Earlier this week, the Financial Times quoted a senior minister as saying: "There is no way we will be rushed into something as controversial as a tribunal. If there is a solution, it can only be found in the long term."
The report goes on to say - surprise, surprise - that the decision to shelve the main recommendations made by Dr North and his colleagues has been taken to avoid conflict with Ulster Unionist MPs and senior Conservative backbenchers.
The North Commission was set up by Sir Patrick Mayhew last summer under the chairmanship of the vice chancellor of Oxford University. Local interests were represented by the Rev John Dunlop, former Moderator of the Presbyterian Church, and Father Oliver Crilly, from Strabane. They held meetings with a wide cross section of both communities.
I have spoken to members of the Orange Order as well as nationalist politicians and they were impressed by the commission's desire to listen, learn and be constructive.
The first suspicion that all was not well surfaced last week when extensive leaks of the report appeared in the Northern media. There was an immediate hostile reaction from unionists, including the Rev Ian Paisley and Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, who were scathing about the proposal for an independent tribunal.
It's worth recalling that the idea for such a body was first mooted by Mr Ronnie Flanagan, the new Chief Constable of the RUC. He knew even before last year's disastrous stand off at Drumcree that enormous damage would be done to the image of his force and to its relationship with the nationalist community by any repetition of the previous year's confrontation.
THE proposal was taken up enthusiastically by Ms Mo Mowlam, the Labour Party's front bench spokesperson on the North. How she reacts to Sir Patrick's statement this afternoon will be important.
If, as it now seems likely, the British government does shelve the North Commission's main recommendations, the prospects for the summer are ominous.
Already, the Portadown Orange Lodge has confirmed that it intends to march along its "traditional route" down Garvaghy Road this year. A spokesman has said they are not prepared to engage in negotiations with the local residents' group.
In the past, the reason given for this was their objection to the chairman, Mr Brendan Mac Cionnath, a Sinn Fein activist who has been convicted of IRA offences. The ban has now been extended to include Father Eamon Stack, a Jesuit priest involved in parish work in one of the estates adjoining Garvaghy Road, who is also secretary of the residents' group.
The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland know that a repetition of the kind of violence at Drumcree last year could provide the catalyst for what everyone fears - a return to full scale violence. This includes many decent, law abiding members of the Orange Order, who want to march along their traditional routes but recognise that the concept of civil and religious liberty must be seen to apply to both communities.
One of the most hopeful signals of recent weeks came from the new grand master of the order, Mr Robert Saulters, when he and a party of his senior colleagues travelled to Ballymena to express their solidarity with beleaguered Catholic mass goers in the Harryville estate.
I don't want to exaggerate the importance of this. The following Saturday, protesters appeared on the picket line outside the church wearing their Orange sashes. But Mr Saulters and other members of the order demonstrated a desire for tolerance and better understanding between the two communities which has been lacking in the past.
The problem is that the tensions which come into play during the marching season cannot be resolved, at least not at the moment, by local goodwill. If that commodity was more abundantly available we would not have seen the slide towards sectarianism which has been evident in recent months.
Nor will the TV advertising campaign, which compares the present situation in Northern Ireland to the rise of Hitler's Germany, help to ameliorate this. As one Belfast citizen asked mordantly: "Who are the Nazis and who are the Jews and how do you tell the difference?"
What is needed most now is action by government designed to prevent further violent clashes, action seen to be manifestly fair and reasonable and thus deserving of support from the majority on both sides who dread a return to violence.
We will have to wait until later today for the publication of Dr North's report. However, if the leaks are accurate, it constitutes a serious effort to manage the problems of parades and marches in a way which deals equitably with both sides, and with republican as well as Orange marches.
THIS isn't surprising. Mr Dunlop and Father Crilly have both demonstrated, helping the two communities to live in over a long period, their commitment to peace together. They have earned the right to have their views taken seriously and if, as now seems likely, their efforts are rejected for short term political reasons, that too tells us a lot about the British government's attitudes to the North.
It is a bitter irony that Sir Patrick should address the Commons on this issue on the 25th anniversary, almost to the very hour, of the Bloody Sunday march in Derry. Hundreds of thousands of words have been written in recent weeks about the impact of what happened on that cold, bright day in the Bogside - the continuing pain and anger of the victims' families; the abject failure of the rule of law; the deployment of all the forces at the disposal of the British state to defend and cover up what happened.
But it was these events, the murder of innocent civilians and all that followed them, which forced the British government to recognise that the responsibility for governing Northern Ireland could no longer be left in the hands of the majority. If there was to be any hope of peace, stability and an equitable settlement in Northern Ireland, the British government would have to take charge and impose its will on the two communities. Yet 25 years on, it still hasn't grasped that nettle.