The knockabout stuff of the last couple of days contained a hint of panic, writes Mark Brennock.
They might not have to face the people for 21 months, but to listen to the Taoiseach and his Ministers this week you could be forgiven for thinking that they had just 21 days left. A few bad polls, Eddie Hobbs and a bit of planning from Fine Gael and Labour have brought some backbenchers with vulnerable seats out in a cold sweat. Several have spoken anonymously to newspapers saying the Taoiseach and his Ministers are not doing enough to defend their party and Government against unfair criticism.
The party leadership knows too that it faces a challenge to recover public confidence and to use the next 18 months or so to convince the public once more that it is they who should be trusted to run the country after the next election. The wiser Ministers know consistent good government in the next period, coupled with a coherent plan for the future, is what they need. But in Ballyconnell over the last two days they responded to the demands for instant responses to TV programmes and Opposition stunts.
And having responded by trying out several stratagems, it will become clear quickly enough that some of them won't last a month, let alone the 18-21 months to a general election.
Damaged by accusations of incompetence, the party has fallen back on to the issue that it believes gives it the most advantage: economic management. Research by Fianna Fáil and others since before the last general election shows that whatever about other issues, floating voters trust Fianna Fáil more than they do the Opposition to manage the economy. So highlighting the economic success that has been seen during their time in office, and talking up the notion that a change of government involves taking a risk, therefore seems to make sense.
But the denunciations of the Opposition over the last few days struck a note of hysteria and farce. The Taoiseach told reporters that Fine Gael and Labour had left the economy in a similar condition to those of Sudan and Ethiopia last time they were in power, and were planning to do it again if given the chance.
In fact, the Fine Gael/Labour government's finance minister, Ruairí Quinn, presided over the first budget surplus in recent times. He also presided over consistently higher growth than we have seen in any of the last five years. A Labour claim that this success arose solely from Labour policies would be as facile as Brian Cowen's claim on Tuesday that something unique about this Government's policies had brought prosperity.
However, Bertie Ahern stopped just short of predicting a return to the potato famine should the Opposition return to power at the next election. Labour's "tax and spend" policies would bring us all back to the Third World "in jig time", said the Taoiseach. Unemployment would explode, emigration would be back. Fianna Fáil would not "take risks" with the economy, said the Taoiseach, the implication being that Fine Gael and Labour were just dying to get their hands on the economy and subject it to crazy experiments.
The second line of attack, pursued vigorously by Brian Cowen, is that Fine Gael and Labour are not producing any joint proposals for what they would do in government. Cowen denounced Fine Gael and Labour for proposing to fight the next election with perhaps "a 10-point plan that I'm sure will sound very nice to us all . . . and then decide they will have a programme for government afterwards".
Of course Fianna Fáil and the PDs didn't even give us a 10-point plan in 1997 and 2002, nor will they next time. They will do exactly what Fine Gael and Labour plan to do: publish party manifestos and negotiate coalition arrangements afterwards. The denunciation of Fine Gael and Labour for doing precisely what Fianna Fáil do themselves is disingenuous .
Cowen gave a performance of much greater substance at a press conference yesterday, robustly challenging claims that the Government did not get value for public spending. He showed that many of the comparisons made by the Opposition between the initial estimated cost of a project and the final cost of what is often a considerably expanded project are spurious. He appeared to have line by line rebuttals available for all alleged wasteful projects from the Port Tunnel to various road schemes.
Indeed, Fine Gael and Labour have a couple of limp old lines too. In Mullingar on Monday they went on again about how long the Government had been in power, how "the same tired old faces around the Cabinet table" are still there. Sounds suspiciously like their own market research people have told them this point is worth making over and over. While they did produce a joint position on social partnership, we still do not know how their general policy approach will differ - if at all - from that of the current Coalition.
So the rhetoric so far suggests an election campaign devoid of political substance, relying on tired old sound bites. But there is a chance that this could change. Between now and the next election there is a sequence of major political developments to take place. The IRA may complete the historic move of putting its entire arsenal of weapons beyond use; the economy will prove its strength or otherwise in response to the oil price rises; the Government will announce major changes in how childcare is organised; the Tánaiste's health service reforms will begin to transform patients' experiences - or not; roads will be built; prices increases will moderate - or not; SSIA savings will become available.
Meanwhile Fine Gael and Labour will produce joint positions on a variety of issues coupled with a slick marketing campaign, as the Government puts together a new programme trying to suggest it has a clear programme for a further five years in power.
How these issues end up will determine how the public sees the Government and Opposition when the election finally comes. In this context, the knockabout stuff of the last couple of days is little more than a bit of comic relief.
The Taoiseach insists the Government will continue to summer 2007. If true, the Coalition is only at the same stage in this electoral cycle as it was during the last Dáil term when it had just attempted to appoint Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank. Some pundits said then that the damage done was terminal, but the Government returned to power in 2002 with more seats than in 1997. They have time to turn it around this time too, but will need more than a few stand-up lines about Sudan and Ethiopia.