The response of the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, last nigh to the weekend suicide bombings in Israel laid the blame for them squarely on the Palestinian leader, Mr Yasser Arafat. This was a highly personalised attack on Mr Arafat. It explains the Israeli attack yesterday on his personal facilities and seems to prefigure a wider military assault. This is a dangerous development, calling on Israelis to resist what Mr Sharon describes as an attack on their very existence. It could undermine the possibility of any agreement between the two sides.
The weekend suicide bombings were among the worst ever experienced by Israeli civilians, leaving 25 people dead in west Jerusalem and Haifa. Aimed at the softest targets, Saturday night revellers and bus passengers, they cannot be totally prevented by Israeli - or Palestinian - policing operations. That is no excuse for the relative inactivity of Mr Arafat's Palestinian Authority. It has been reluctant to move against the Hamas movement which has claimed the attacks, for fear that there would be a street reaction from the growing number of Palestinians who support such organisations and such atrocities.
The wave of arrests that has followed them under a state of emergency proclaimed by Mr Arafat will be difficult to sustain if there is no sign of political reciprocity from the Israelis. A solely military response by Mr Sharon's government will be interpreted as a determination to undermine the Palestinian Authority, possibly to destroy Mr Arafat. That option has been increasingly canvassed in Israel over the last few weeks. If followed it would be a very serious consequence indeed. It would put a complete end to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process that has staggered to survive through the violence of the last 15 months, in which over 1,000 people have now died. It would probably lead to all-out war between Israel and the Palestinians, in which political leaders far less acceptable to the Israelis would emerge. Such chaos and violence would be extremely dangerous for their peoples, for the Middle East region - and for the conduct of the war against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
While much is made of United States pressure on and support for Israel, that state has always insisted on its own autonomy. But it is difficult to believe President Bush would countenance any Israeli policy of overthrowing the Palestinian Authority, however hard he leans on Mr Arafat to crack down on those responsible for these suicide attacks. The basic framework for a return to negotiations has been set out in the Mitchell report, which commands widespread support. For that to happen Israel will have to show itself ready to re-engage politically. For that to be credible there must be a foreseeable end to its occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, to Israeli settlements, blockades of towns and campaign of selected assassinations, in response to the arrest of those who planned these suicide bombs. Too much is at stake for the international community to allow a drift to war.