FOR THE last few weeks, to finalise a book on the history of Fianna Fáil, I have been trying to identify a moment which illustrates how far the party has fallen. This week I think I found one. Nothing captures Fianna Fáil’s newfound impotence more than its rush to endorse a Gay Byrne presidential run.
With unseemly haste, a line-up of Fianna Fáil’s leading figures have taken to the phones to Byrne himself or to radio stations offering to facilitate his participation in the contest. There is something needy about Fianna Fáil’s desire to be associated with the prospect of a celebrity presidential election.
The presidency has been a Fianna Fáil stronghold. Éamon de Valera designed the office and later went on to hold it for two terms. Fianna Fáil has won all but one of our previous presidential elections. Where a vacancy in the Áras has been filled without a contest, a Fianna Fáil nominee has been given the post. Now, however, as another election approaches, the party’s leaders and grassroots, still so badly shaken by its electoral crash last spring, cannot decide whether to even participate in the contest. The once-dominant party is exhibiting all the signs of post-traumatic stress disorder in the incoherent and shambolic way it has approached this race.
While Fine Gael and Labour have already selected their candidates, and two other Independents have bagged nominations from county councils, Fianna Fáil has been taking its time deciding on a strategy, arguing that there was no rush. That makes the flurry of activity and comment around assisting Byrne’s nomination all the more curious.
Without any formal consideration of the Byrne candidature within the party structure, nor any regard to what his views might be and without, it appears, any substantial consideration of whether a Byrne presidency is in the national interest, Fianna Fáil has found itself among the early cheerleaders for his cause.
It is peculiar to say the least that Fianna Fáil has found itself in this position over a man who hasn’t even decided whether he wants the job and who, if he does step up to the starting blocks, may not be able to withstand the intensity of the campaign. Byrne may be the latest front-runner in the polls but his early policy utterances suggest he will struggle to make the adjustment from attention-grabbing media personality to substantial office holder.
Charting the constitutional and diplomatic constraints of being head of State requires a different skill-set from stoking national sorrows or international stars. Some have argued Byrne shouldn’t run because, although they are certain he would make a good president, they feel he is likely to be a bad campaigner. However the scrutiny and rigours of the campaign are what give the public the opportunity to see whether the contender would be suitable for the presidency.
The question of whether or not to run its own candidate has been the subject of intense debate within Fianna Fáil. At formal meetings, informal gatherings and on party discussion boards, the contributors have been divided into two groups.
The presidential electoral hawks say Fianna Fáil must contest and do so with its own candidate. As the hawks see it, the notion of Fianna Fáil sitting on the sidelines is simply unthinkable. For them, it would amount to the party surrendering the little political credibility it has left. They fret that leaving the goalmouth empty would hand victory to one of the Government candidates. They have persuaded themselves a presidential election campaign fronted by Brian Crowley or Éamon Ó Cuív or Mary Hanafin might help in reviving the party organisation.
On the other hand, the realists argue running a branded candidate in the presidential election would expose the party to further humiliation and distract from its recovery process. Even before the recent Irish Timesand Paddy Power opinion polls put notional Fianna Fáil candidates scoring in the mid- to low teens, senior Fianna Fáil staffers and politicians had access to their own research suggesting a party candidate could do worse, much worse than the party's disastrous general election.
The realists contend the focus should be on rebuilding rather than going through the motions of contesting a presidential election. They are concerned too about the delicate state of party morale and nervous it could not sustain another disastrous campaign so soon.
One suspects Micheál Martin may have hoped Gaybo’s candidature would resolve the internal conflict on strategy. It offered the party the prospect of helping to give Fine Gael a bloody nose without suffering injury themselves. As it happens, the recent polling suggests Fine Gael has undermined its own chances by picking a bad candidate.
If Byrne runs and wins, Fianna Fáil may enjoy the discomfiture that the victory itself and a Gaybo presidency would cause Enda Kenny and his colleagues. If Byrne runs and loses, or implodes mid-campaign, Fianna Fáil will be collaterally damaged further. If, after his high-profile deliberation, Byrne decides to withdraw, Fianna Fáil will look silly and will still have to make up their own minds on whether or who to run.