WorldView: Sometimes it's what's not said, and why, that speaks volumes, writes Derek Scally
When Poland's Danuta Hübner, the EU's regional affairs commissioner, made a speech last weekend at the University of Sussex, she should have said: "A massive change will occur as the Union grows to absorb Turkey and possibly Ukraine by around 2015."
Ms Hübner chose not to deliver that zinger, but the fact that it found its way into a speech by Poland's leading official in Brussels shows how determined Poles are to drive on Ukraine's EU ambitions.
Then again, the fact that the sentence in the script remained unspoken - her spokeswoman said the audience "was not interested" - says a lot about the attitude of the rest of the EU to Ukraine's accession hopes, and about Poland's special interest.
The European Commission agreed an "Action Plan" with Ukraine last month, a 10-point, three-year programme to encourage political and economic reforms. In the document "the EU acknowledges Ukraine's European aspirations and welcomes Ukraine's European choice", a diplomatic way of keeping its options open.
At the signing ceremony, both sides studiously avoided referring to Ukraine's long-term prospects with the Union, unlike Aleksander Kwasniewski, the president of Poland, days later in Berlin.
"Ukraine expressed its wish to be embraced by western society during the peaceful revolution on the lips of its citizens, from the cold squares of Kiev, from people who hadn't fought for political power but for their dignity. People who live the same values as those in the West," he told a high-calibre invited audience at the Bertelsmann Foundation.
He later told Die Welt newspaper: "I don't want to talk today about a date . . . but I'm saying clearly: Ukraine has its place in the EU. And we're not just interested in this as Poles, but as Europeans."
Mr Kwasniewski was key mediator in negotiations in Kiev during last year's election crisis, holding a number of meetings with the presidential candidate, Viktor Yushchenko.
His engagement won him praise at home and credit in Brussels. The question now is how much of that credit is he prepared to put into play to advance Ukraine's EU hopes? The history between Poland and Ukraine is difficult, to put it mildly, or bloody, to put it bluntly.
The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which survived for over two centuries until 1795, encompassed most of today's Ukraine until the mid-17th century. Ukraine's agricultural western regions were part of Poland until borders were redrawn after the second World War, with both countries in Moscow's sphere of influence.
Officials in Warsaw talk of the new era of relations with Kiev as a process of reconciliation similar to the building of relations between France and Germany after the second World War.
They accept that driving on Ukraine's EU dream is a long, lonely battle. The last round of EU enlargement was driven by the moral obligation felt by Berlin and other European capitals towards the candidate countries, an obligation that isn't felt for Ukraine.
"The idea is to keep Ukraine on a low flame for as long as possible," says Janusz Reiter, former Polish ambassador to Germany and now president of the Centre for International Relations in Warsaw. But he argues that it is essential to offer Kiev something more than the current action plan, which he says is "perceived as something for countries that should remain outside over a long period".
"The EU has to think of something, for psychological reasons, so that Ukraine gets a signal, so that what the country has achieved will be honoured," he says. "I think that a bit of pressure [ from Warsaw] can help. I just hope that the EU is aware of its responsibility, otherwise the credibility of the new leadership will be severely damaged."
Adam Rotfeld, the Polish foreign minister, told Der Spiegel: "Naturally Ukraine has a right to a similar perspective as Turkey." Warsaw is developing a "Ukrainian package" of support and assistance to bring its neighbour up to European standards.
But after going it alone with its infamous "Nice or Death" strategy, Warsaw has learned the importance of partners. In the case of Ukraine, its natural partner is Berlin, with the clout and contacts to build an acceptable Ukraine consensus in Brussels and then sell it to the Kremlin.
"You have in this context a greater role than you sometimes realise," said Mr Kwasniewski to his audience in Berlin, which included the interior minister, Otto Schily.
Poland and Germany launched a joint initiative last autumn to draw attention to the situation in Kiev, and Mr Kwasniewski spoke many times to Gerhard Schröder during his time there.
Berlin officials appreciate Warsaw's efforts to seize the moment when Ukraine is in the public eye to push for better promises from the EU as a way of encouraging reforms.
But the Germans are well aware that France and other countries, putting the constitution to referendum, a vote already overshadowed by Turkey's accession, do not need talk of another controversial candidate.
When German foreign minister Joschka Fischer met Mr Kwasniewski in Warsaw yesterday, the message was that now is not the time for an abstract accession debate. As far as Berlin is concerned, reforms in Ukraine can be successful with the action plan and the knowledge that the door to the EU is not closed.
Observers in Warsaw are realistic about Ukraine's chances, but hope to improve them over time by gradually changing perspectives in Brussels. As Mr Reiter puts it: "The EU has to see the Polish relationship with Ukraine as an asset for the whole EU and not just a Polish matter."