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Noel Whelan: Varadkar regime returns an inconclusive verdict

Taoiseach is open and decisive, but has not yet proved he is a leader of substance

Five weeks is too short a period to form anything approaching a defining assessment of any prime minister. However, as politics is about to go into recess, we can begin to form some initial impressions about how Leo Varadkar will operate as Taoiseach.

In terms of leadership approach, one early shift under the Varadkar regime is clear.

He has a greater willingness to engage with the media than Enda Kenny. Not that that would have been difficult. Kenny seldom, if ever, did extensive TV or even newspaper interviews.

Fianna Fáil knows that Varadkar has the potential to be an electoral game-changer for Fine Gael

Varadkar has done both Prime Time and a full pager with the Sunday Independent in his first weeks. The way he used both opportunities suggests a desire on his part to shape the media agenda.

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His decision to go there about the Jobstown trial in the Prime Time interview appeared pre-planned and was on balance unwise, given that a trial of other persons accused of charges arising from the same events is scheduled for October.

However, the move merely confirms something we already knew about Varadkar - that he can at times be less than cautious in his public pronouncements.

Behind closed doors, the Varadkar style also seems to contrast sharply with that of Kenny. Ministers speak privately of more reflective Cabinet discussions since the new Taoiseach took over, and of a renewed focus on delivering particular priorities.

In one-on-one meetings, Ministers and other leading officer-holders are being pressed on precisely what they are doing about particular commitments. The view is that Varadkar will be very demanding of those who report to him, but very supportive when they are prepared to take political risks.

They speak also of this Taoiseach’s stronger capacity to make decisions.

Whatever the merits of the manner in which Enda Kenny pushed through the appointment of former attorney general Máire Whelan to the Court of Appeal at his last Cabinet meeting, Varadkar insisted the following weekend on pressing on with implementing the appointment, in order to contain the political fallout.

This is suggestive of a tendency on Varadkar’s part to double down where necessary, rather than procrastinate or abandon decisions already made.

There is also a sense that Varadkar becoming Taoiseach might not prove as stormy for the Government's confidence-and-supply relationship with Fianna Fáil as might have been presumed.

In Varadkar’s first month, Fianna Fáil has for understandable political reasons sought to hobble the new Taoiseach, or at least define him in the public mind as all show and lacking substance.

Fianna Fáil knows that Varadkar has the potential to be an electoral game-changer for Fine Gael.

The initial polling points only to a slight Varadkar bounce for his party, but what is clear is that it cannot now be presumed, as it might have been, that Fianna Fáil will inevitably be higher than Fine Gael whenever the next election comes.

Election question

People in Leinster House are, for now, taking Varadkar at his word that he does not favour an early election. There are signs of a real commitment on his part to smooth relations with the largest opposition party.

An interesting example of efforts in that regard was the passage through the Dáil last week of a Fianna Fáil Bill allowing for greater rights for mental-health patients.

The Mental Health (Amendment) Bill, 2017, sponsored by Fianna Fáil spokesperson James Browne, was one of the items specifically raised by Micheál Martin when he first met Varadkar as taoiseach-elect.

The Varadkar regime will ultimately be judged by the substance of any policy shifts

Varadkar has not only delivered on priority passage for the Bill, but even went out of his way to tweet about it being a Fianna Fáil Bill.

These are the type of confidence-building measures for Fianna Fáil we are likely to see more of from the Government in the coming months.

There is the sense more generally that Varadkar is focused on getting some legislation passed.

The last two weeks of this Dáil term were busier in that regard. It remains to be seen if these efforts will be sustained and productive in the autumn session.

Inevitably, in part because of the generational shift, much prominence has been given to the changes in prime ministerial style.

However, the Varadkar regime will ultimately be judged by the substance of any policy shifts, particularly as they relate to the economy.

The rhetoric on the latter issue during the Fine Gael leadership contest and since has been relatively dramatic.

Of particular note is the announcement by Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe that they will abandon the publicly disastrous and economically unsound Fine Gael promise in last year's election to abolish the Universal Social Charge.

Barring any summer surprises, the first real test for our new Taoiseach on this issue and otherwise will come in October’s budget.