ANALYSIS:The economic crisis and pressure points such as possible public sector rejection of the pay deal will dominate the resumed Dáil session, writes HARRY McGEE
THE DÁIL resumes today for a summer session that is technically midterm but that will not quell the overwhelming mood of crisis, uncertainty and instability that has characterised Irish politics since the autumn of 2008.
At the same point in the electoral cycle five years ago, it turned out to be arguably the most mundane and taciturn session of the 29th Dáil. In 2005, there was no expectation of an election before 2007. The government’s legislative programme for the session lacked ambition: 13 Bills in all on the priority list; only half of which were published. One of those kicked to touch was the Bill paving the way for a referendum on the European constitution.
There were controversies – over breast cancer screening; the treatment of Turkish workers; accident and emergency department waiting lists; and wrongful charges in nursing homes – but none were big enough to destabilise the government. Besides, the economy was expanding at dramatic rates: from the then coalition’s perspective, it remained the ace that could trump every conceivable opposition hand.
In contrast, this session, which continues until July 8th, will be dominated by the economic and banking crisis and the very real possibility that the Croke Park deal on public sector pay will be rejected by unions when it is put to popular ballot.
“Nothing is predictable any more. You can never know what can crop up,” said one savvy party strategist.
The fortnight’s break for Easter (shorter than other years) has been relatively calm politically compared to other breaks of the past year, such as Christmas when the severe weather became a big political football.
However, the sense of quietude is not likely to continue for very long. Indeed, the Government may find itself in its first spot of bother by mid-afternoon today if a vote is pressed by the Opposition on the order for the second stage of the Central Bank Reform Bill.
On paper, the Government retains a secure majority of 84 to 78, when you include the three Fianna Fáil TDs outside the parliamentary party fold. However, that did not prevent the Government coming within one vote of defeat in a Dáil vote shortly before Easter. Now, paradoxically, the shutdown of air travel because of the Icelandic volcano could make the numbers game immediately precarious for the Coalition. At least seven Fianna Fáil TDs are among 13 deputies left stranded outside the country. While the Government was saying it hoped there would be a level of cross-party understanding on a unique predicament, the sentiment was not being echoed by Fine Gael, which would not give any guarantees it would not exploit the opportunity.
“We intend to use all parliamentary opportunities to kick-start a recovery for the country. We will look at all our options,” said the party spokesman. However, the indications were last night that those on the missing list could cancel each other out.
Indeed, banking and regulation (through the Central Bank Reform Bill) will be the major theme this week and is likely to play a dominant part at the end of the session. For, if the Government is going to review the continuation of the bank guarantee by the end of September, that matter must be decided before the start of the summer break in July.
Unsurprisingly, Opposition parties intend to continue targeting the Government on its handling of the banking crisis, with particular emphasis on the alleged links between Fianna Fáil and Anglo Irish Bank. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny devoted a speech last night to criticising what he described as a “culture of cover-up” between Fianna Fáil and Anglo. One of the major themes pursued by Labour leader Eamon Gilmore at the weekend was the extent of the Government’s knowledge of Anglo’s affairs in the run-up to the guarantee in September 2008.
One demonstration of how quickly the political cycle works is that both main Opposition parties have quietly shelved plans to table no-confidence motions in Minister for Health Mary Harney arising from controversies in Tallaght hospital.
One pattern that is unchanged from five years ago is the big gap between the number of Bills that have been promised and those actually published. Of 20 Bills prioritised for publication between January and April, only seven were published. That included the Central Bank legislation published just before Easter.
According to the Labour Party, the last Bill published before that was on February 4th. The party yesterday criticised the lack of activism, pointing out that Bills providing for a ban on stag hunting and the holding of a Dublin mayoral election have yet to be published. The latter needs to be enacted to allow the promised mayoral election to take place later this year. A Department of the Environment spokesman said yesterday that both will be published before the summer and the hope remained for an election this year.
The Government’s new Chief Whip John Curran acknowledged yesterday that too few Bills had been published. He said the new list would contain only Bills that would have a realistic chance of publication before the summer.
Another issue which will soon confront the Government is mounting pressure to move the writs for the three byelections in Waterford, Donegal South West and Dublin South. However, given his slim majority, it is unlikely that Taoiseach Brian Cowen will feel compelled to grant the Opposition parties their wish any time this year.
Harry McGee is a political correspondent