LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY

They had to live in the "real world", Gerry Adams told delegates at Sinn Fein's weekend ardfheis, when he tried to hold the door…

They had to live in the "real world", Gerry Adams told delegates at Sinn Fein's weekend ardfheis, when he tried to hold the door ajar for the proposed Northern Ireland elections and the subsequent all party negotiations on June 10th. For a movement emerging from 25 years of bloody violence and repression it was a difficult message to swallow. And for many of those present it was simply unacceptable. For it implied recognition of a failed military campaign and its rejection in favour of the adoption off democratic principles, leading to a political settlement to which both traditions on this island could give broad consent.

Concepts like "parity of esteem" and "equality of treatment" don't have the narrow, tribalistic appeal of a military victory or the satisfaction of confounding of one's enemies. The armed wing of the republican movement has always - and wrongly - believed in the possibility of forging a deal with the British government over the heads of the unionist people. And it distrusts the uncertainty of the political process. Recent developments have only served to confirm those suspicions and the IRA has insisted on retaining its armoury of weapons until the final shape of any political settlement becomes clear.

The creation of parity of esteem between the two communities might transform the quality of life in Northern Ireland and release the pent up economic and cultural capacity of the island as a whole. But it falls short of the republican ideal involving a British withdrawal and a united Ireland. Both Governments are committed to an agreed political settlement. But they have set down proposals for a three stranded settlement in the Framework Document which is expected to underpin the negotiations which open on June 10th.

An inclusive settlement involving all political parties is still attainable, in spite of the breach of the IRA ceasefire and last week's statement by the INLA. In that regard, Mr Adams and supporters of the peace process within the republican movement must be encouraged in their efforts to convince the militant faction to reinstate the ceasefire and to pursue their objectives by purely democratic means.

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One of the main concerns of nationalists at this time involves the status of the Forum, which will be elected on May 30th as part of the process leading into all party talks. Both the SDLP and Sinn Fein are adamant that this elected body should have no control or influence over the proposed negotiations and that the ground rules set out by the two Governments in their consultative document should stand. Given that the nationalist parties are prepared to contemplate a boycott of the elections, rather than facilitate the return of a Stormont style body, such reassurances should be quickly forthcoming.

Mr Adams said on Saturday that the republican movement had reached "a defining point in its struggle". And he looked forward to a continuation of the peace process and the adoption of democratic principles. For that to happen and for Sinn Fein to become fully involved in any meaningful negotiations the IRA will have to reinstate its ceasefire. More than that, Sinn Fein will have to fully embrace the six Mitchell principles and, during negotiations, the IRA will have to contribute to confidence building between the two communities by engaging in parallel decommissioning.

The indications over the weekend were that the IRA was not yet ready to contemplate such a development. And there were suggestions that the movement might split if such demands were made. But no matter how difficult the choice, the point has almost been reached where republicans must choose to join with constitutional nationalists in seeking a democratic settlement or return to the sterile wastes of the armed conflict. There can be no question of republicans advancing with an armalite in one hand and a ballot box in the other.