Sir, – In these uncertain times it is surprising that the three scenarios presented by the economists in the Department of Finance failed to attract much debate. The fact they did not make the front page of The Irish Times raises a question about their lack of relevance.
I would suggest this is because the process of scenario planning conducted by the department’s economists using mathematical models of the Irish economy suffer from the age-old criticism of economics – that it “assumes away” the problem (or at least part of it).
The fuel protests and the Government response to them in the past two weeks highlight a very relevant contributor to uncertainty, namely domestic political upheaval. This is completely ignored in the exercise, due to the well established choreography between Government economists and the Cabinet, which involves the actions of Government being kept outside the analysis. Is anyone thinking about the danger that our Government might land us in deeper waters, by making irresponsible decisions. There are plenty of examples of this in the past.
If economists in Ireland’s universities, which are supposed to be independent, were to get involved in the debate and carry out genuine scenario analysis, which would build the political dimensions into the analysis of what is a very real crisis, they would be doing the country a great service. – Yours, etc,
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Eoin O’Leary,
Emeritus professor of economics,
Rochestown,
Cork.
