The wording of the IRA ceasefire statement issued on Saturday morning is certainly less than one might have liked. It refers to an "unequivocal restoration" of the August 1994 ceasefire and the "complete cessation of military operations". The absence of any commitment to a permanent cessation has been seized upon as evidence of a half-hearted commitment to peace; it will confirm suspicions in some quarters that that this is no more than a tactical cessation designed to smooth the path for Sinn Fein's entry into the talks process. But all of this is to underestimate the importance of what has already been achieved. The IRA guns fell silent at midday yesterday; the threat of another murderous attack by the Provisionals has been removed, at least for now. Lives will be saved. The considerable investment that the Sinn Fein leadership has made in a second ceasefire should also be appreciated. Mr Adams, Mr McGuinness and the rest must know there can be no return to violence once the settlement train departs: a collapse of this ceasefire would totally undermine their leadership. There can be no third ceasefire.
Despite the low-key response to the ceasefire - the absence of any of the euphoria that greeting the August 1994 announcement - it may be that the prospects for a more durable ceasefire are better. On this occasion, painstaking work by both Dublin and London means that a framework for detailed negotiation, and a timeframe for their completion, are now in situ. Mr Blair's steely determination to rebuild the peace - and his healthy parliamentary majority - also make it less likely that the opportunity for a permanent peace will be allowed to wither. The manner in which his government has continued to force the pace over the weekend - with the establishment of an independent body to oversee the decommissioning of paramilitary arms and the promise of ministerial talks with Sinn Fein - offers further encouragement.
Mr Blair's immediate task, beginning in London today, is to persuade Mr Trimble that he should not collapse the talks process over decommissioning. Mr Trimble is under intense pressure from the other unionist parties to yield no ground. It may be, as our London Editor reports today, that the Ulster Unionists will use their veto at Wednesday's session of the Stormont talks in order to block the British-Irish formula on decommissioning. Such an approach might buy Mr Trimble some time before the scheduled start of the talks in mid-September, but it will do little to change the stark choice that he faces.
He has an opportunity to shape the outcome of the negotiations on the future of Northern Ireland. Or he can stand aside and risk being cast as an enemy of the peace - while the two governments proceed with the peace process. Mr Trimble, like Mr Adams, must know that this ceasefire represents a final opportunity for peace in Northern Ireland. It is a last chance to ensure, in Mr Blair's words, that the North will not see "another generation . . . growing up with violence and hatred and despair around them."