It's up to Ahern to spur peace process

Can Bertie Ahern rescue the peace process? The Taoiseach has other things on his mind - Liam Lawlor, the possibility of a general…

Can Bertie Ahern rescue the peace process? The Taoiseach has other things on his mind - Liam Lawlor, the possibility of a general election, the rate of inflation, to name a few. But we have reached another moment of serious crisis in the search for a political settlement in Northern Ireland. Bertie Ahern, who seems to have retained the trust of all the parties, needs to devote some quality time to the problems which now threaten hopes for the quick restoration of the Executive.

It is still not clear whether the Ulster Unionist Council will meet in Belfast on Saturday. We do not know what David Trimble has to offer his grassroots, or whether it will be enough to persuade them to jump over this latest hurdle.

The problems now extend beyond the name of the RUC or whether the IRA's statement on arms amounts to decommissioning. Belfast is buzzing with allegations of bad faith and broken promises. These centre on whether a formula was agreed on the RUC which would mollify unionists who agreed to it, and why it appears to have fallen by the wayside.

Unionists claim that at Hillsborough on Friday night a fortnight ago they were offered changes in the wording of the Police Bill (Northern Ireland) which had its first reading in the House of Commons yesterday. These did go so far as to include retaining the name or the badge of the RUC.

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However, in a section of the Bill setting out the structures of the new Police Service of Northern Ireland, there would be a phrase describing the new force as "incorporating the Royal Ulster Constabulary".

This, it seems, was what persuaded David Trimble and, crucially, John Taylor to talk up the chances of winning a majority in the Ulster Unionist Council. On the Monday following Hillsborough, the deputy leader of the UUP told BBC's Radio Ulster: "There are still some hiccups, but I think they will be overcome."

At first the Irish Government appeared to accept that Trimble had a problem and was disposed to try to help him. Sinn Fein, however, was furious and implacably opposed to any recognition of the RUC. The SDLP added its voice, saying it would be "deeply disappointed and unhappy" at any change. Faced with this concerted nationalist opposition, the Government felt it had little choice but to veto any change in the proposed wording of the Bill.

Other, perhaps more fundamental, issues have surfaced to muddy the troubled waters. On the nationalist side, there is a deep suspicion that unionists are simply putting up more objections to impede political progress, and that they are wilfully refusing to admit that the IRA has made a shift of truly historic proportions.

Unionists argue that the IRA's statement is ambiguous on the question of the ultimate destruction of arms, and ask why nationalists are unable to accept the deep sense of hurt caused by Patten's criticism of the RUC.

Both sides feel they have been let down. This sense of injury now threatens the hopes which were raised so high at Hillsborough less than two weeks ago. The blame game has begun again. The announcement that Martin McGuinness is to fly to Washington later this week is just one signal of what is to come.

For the moment the republican movement is secure that it has command of the moral high ground and that the blame for failure to reestablish the Executive will fall on the unionists. That could change if, as has already been suggested, the IRA was to decide to withdraw its offer to allow its arms dumps to be inspected.

BUT something much more important is at stake here than who gets the blame for what and why. Does either side really want a retreat to the arid political desert of accusations and recrimination?

Both Gerry Adams and David Trimble know that the only way forward is by building trust through the practice of politics. Each man has taken enormous personal risks to bring this about. There is no alternative (at least none that anyone wants to contemplate) to the slow, frustrating process of politics. That means that, sooner or later, the Executive and the other institutions must be put back on track.

At the moment the mood in Belfast is sour, and could become more so. But everybody who has followed this process understands the state of play. Many unionists recognise that the IRA has made a move of historic proportions. Equally, David Trimble needs a lifeline which will carry his party through the present troubled waters and land it safely on the shore.

This is the problem which both governments have to address within a matter of days. Otherwise there is a real danger that Saturday's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council will either not take place, or will vote to stop David Trimble taking his ministers back into government. Such a failure to move forward would lead to yet another period of political uncertainty and growing disillusionment with the agreement, overshadowed by the Orange marching season and Drumcree.

In effect, this means that the Government of this State should allow London to offer some comfort to Trimble on the RUC, while at the same time convincing Sinn Fein that the game is worth the candle. Bertie Ahern is probably unique in these negotiations in that he has managed to retain the trust of all the parties involved.

He has worked very hard to build a good relationship with Trimble, while at the same time representing the interests of nationalists in a forthright fashion. These achievements, together with his considerable skills as a negotiator, should stand the Taoiseach in good stead as he rides out to rescue the peace process. If he succeeds, it will also help him with his local difficulties.

mholland@irish-times.ie