Impossible to be prepared for 'unknown unknowns'

INSIDE POLITICS:WHATEVER ABOUT his role in the invasion of Iraq, we should be grateful to Donald Rumsfeld for enriching the language with the expression, "unknown unknowns". A senior Opposition figure pointed out to me that it is a useful phrase when trying to anticipate political events here in the coming 12 months.

But what cannot be prepared for in any meaningful way are the “unknown unknowns”. Take, for instance, some unforeseen and dramatic events here whose sudden nature was equalled only by their seismic effect. One was the dramatic revelation by Northern Ireland First Minister Peter Robinson concerning the state of his relationship with his wife, Iris, and her attempted suicide.

Another was the equally dramatic news that Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan, the person in charge of our economic destiny, had been diagnosed with cancer of the pancreas.

In their different ways, Robinson and Lenihan struck a chord with the public. Even in the light of questions raised by Thursday night’s BBC Northern Ireland Spotlight programme on the Robinsons, the First Minister’s obvious anguish in his television appearance the day before would draw sympathy from a stone. And Lenihan’s upbeat approach earlier in the week, so totally lacking in self pity, was an inspiring example of one man’s bravery in the face of a formidable challenge to health and wellbeing.

Both events were a striking example of the intersection of the public and the private. Both men’s private travails have implications for their public performance in immensely responsible jobs where their conduct and decisions can have enormous consequences for peace and prosperity on either side of the Border.

Both occurrences are also a salutary reminder that, beyond the plethora of graphs, polls, statistics and official reports, politics is ultimately a human endeavour.

Robinson’s display of his vulnerable, human side seemed as if it might have a positive effect on the fraught relationship with his Sinn Féin partners in government. At the same time, the Spotlight report concerning alleged financial dealings by Iris Robinson, and her husband’s subsequent intervention, could have very serious implications for both of them and for political stability in Northern Ireland.

Lenihan’s personal courage may have reassured the public at a difficult time that, quite apart from the merits or otherwise of specific decisions, at least we have someone of real character and determination in charge of our troubled economy.

The Minister for Finance has indicated he will be scaling back his workload, staying close to his department and not “gallivanting” around the country, as he put it, in response to the multitude of speaking invitations that land on his desk.

It has now emerged that Taoiseach Brian Cowen will be stepping into the breach to a considerable extent. Given his own background as a former minister for finance, he is well qualified to address various functions at different locations which the other Brian would previously have attended.

Many of these events are purely political in nature, of course. The possibility that a junior minister might be given special responsibility for representing Lenihan at the more far-flung functions has not been ruled out either. But at time of writing there are no signs of an impending Cabinet reshuffle.

Indeed, Lenihan’s increased presence in the office should mean a greater political input to decision-making at the department. In the wider Civil Service there can be a tendency to have Ministers attending various events that keep them away from their desks and allow the “permanent government” to carry out its work quietly and with the minimum of fuss – not that one would ever ascribe such thinking to the austere mandarins of Merrion Street.

There was close liaison between Cowen and Lenihan coming up to last month’s budget, particularly in the important work of keeping backbenchers onside. This level of co-operation would normally be easing off at this stage but, in view of the changed circumstances, there will continue to be a very high degree of contact.

Decision-making is seen as Cowen’s strength, whereas Lenihan excels in presentation, thanks, in part, to his background in the law.

There were times in recent months when a general election seemed imminent. Fine Gael had its policy manifesto ready for a mid-November polling day and was preparing to run some 95 candidates – its current Dáil complement is 52 seats.

But the mood in Government now is more confident than it has been for some time. However, international economic trends are another unknown quantity. “We need a fair wind,” says one well-placed insider. “We are well-positioned when that fair wind blows.”

A tight voting situation in the Dáil can, ironically, work to the benefit of the government of the day. Despite talking out of the sides of their mouths and creating a furore over the issue of drink-driving, Fianna Fáil backbench TDs trooped faithfully into the lobbies to vote for the harshest budget in decades.

Now, like the Greens, it looks like the backbenchers are unlikely to jump ship. And as one seasoned observer put it this week: “Where are they going to jump to? It’s cold out there.”

• Stephen Collins is on leave