STEADY WORKS. Michael D Higgins was the first candidate into the race. Over the summer months opinion polls showed the public wanted an Independent candidate. All across June, July, and even after he left the race in August, David Norris appeared the Independent of choice, save for a week in mid-August when for a fleeting moment it looked like Gay Byrne might enter the field, writes NOEL WHELAN
However, the same polls showed Higgins holding a solid vote share, about 10 points or so ahead of the Labour Partys own standing. Also important was the fact he was well ahead of Fine Gael’s Gay Mitchell. In early September Higgins edged into the lead and emerged as the frontrunner.
When nominations closed and there were no fewer then seven candidates formally in the field Higgins was the most well-known and liked of them. He was also the victor in the first intensive round of debates and interviews which dominated media coverage in week one of the campaign proper.
He managed, in particular, to deflect concerns about his age and his knee, and to do so at times in an entertaining fashion.
The campaign was in many ways akin to a game of skittles for the media. Having bowled at Norris and knocked him out, the media rolled further balls at him when he stood up again. Mary Davis was sent down early. She had run a glossy and high profile campaign. It was a classic off-the-shelf public relations effort built around fashion shoots, colour magazine spreads and a nationwide tour. It was accompanied by an intensive effort with councillors to secure a presidential nomination through the local government route.
She won more councils than anyone else but was unwise to hold on to more than she needed. She emphasised the extent to which others had called on her to serve on the boards of State and voluntary organisations as one of her key qualifications. Somewhat unfairly, this became a negative and she lost ground at a key moment when voters were deciding among the Independents.
Martin McGuinness’s entry into race caused an initial stir and raised the possibility that, if he could capture the anti-establishment and anti-Government mood, he could even be a contender. Quickly, however, McGuinness was confronted on the dishonest narrative of his IRA involvement.
Many voters had a problem with what the IRA did and many also had a difficulty with McGuinness’s account of his own role. The only one of the other candidates to pursue McGuinness was Mitchell. He did so with typical vigour but ultimately to the disadvantage of his own vote share. Dana provided much of the colour of the campaign but she started and ended it as statistically insignificant. Norris was annoyed and annoying for the first half of the actual campaign but mellowed towards the end and showed some of the warmth and fun which had made him so attractive to voters for many months in the pre-campaign phase.
While the other candidates faltered or floundered Higgins stayed calm and steady. The only contender who threatened to take from Higgins was Seán Gallagher. Gallagher came almost from nowhere, at least in the political sense, although much of the public knew him from Dragon’s Den thereby giving him initial name and face recognition. His three years touring the country to talk to different groups also gave him an underlay of support and an initial network. His Fianna Fáil background gave him a feel for campaign operations. Gallagher quietly secured sufficient county council nominations before the summer and then headed off on a low-profile nationwide tour.
The first key moment came a week into the campaign proper when both Red C and MRBI showed him doubling his vote from about 10 to 20 per cent. At that stage many assumed his first surge stemmed from a hoovering up of what was left of Fianna Fáil support. However, closer analysis showed he was then only getting a quarter of the support available from those citing a Fianna Fáil allegiance.
In addition the fact that four out of five votes he was getting were from non-Fianna Fáil voters revealed that Gallagher had real potential for further growth. He also had a winning campaign style. His energy and positive message impressed voters, which is what led him to surge more than 12 points in one week. Even more surprising, however, was the fact that he held and improved that lead slightly a week later notwithstanding a barrage of negative stories in the print media.
Last weekend Gallagher looked like he had this election locked down and the Michael D Higgins strategy looked to have come unstuck. Although Higgins nudged his vote up in the polls he appeared marooned well behind Gallagher and likely to be too far back on the first count.
Then at about 9.50 pm on Monday night Gallagher’s campaign took a nuclear hit. McGuinness’s allegation knocked Gallagher and his campaign off course. Gallagher will know this weekend that he only has himself to blame for the fact that he didn’t or couldn’t respond more strongly to McGuinness at the time and was left weakened in addressing follow-up questions in that debate and the next day.
The outcome of this election was transformed in its dying days not only because a large chunk of the vote left Gallagher but because almost all of it flocked to Higgins.
Higgins had shown himself competent on the powers of the presidency, calm in debate and reassuring in tone and manner. He was well positioned quite simply because he and his campaign team had positioned him well. If the public became concerned about Gallagher it was because they felt they did not really know him. Higgins by comparison was the person they knew best. In this tortured and at times nasty campaign Higgins has earned further respect. He will make a good president and deserves everyone’s support.