Hanafin and Ahern stake claim to the middle ground

The most public face of the anti-abortion movement was wreathed in smiles

The most public face of the anti-abortion movement was wreathed in smiles. Des Hanafin's long campaign for a re-run of the abortion issue had borne fruit and the Fianna Fβil senator was sure no journalist would object to him attending the Government press conference called to announce a new referendum.

His presence represented an informal imprimatur for the Taoiseach's decision to tackle the abortion issue - for the third time in 20 years - by way of legislation and a linked constitutional referendum.

Both Mr Hanafin and Bertie Ahern were only too keenly aware that dissension was a hair's-breadth away where more radical Catholic groups, such as Youth Defence, were concerned and they wanted to stake their claim to the middle ground.

The Taoiseach had embarked on a "softlee softlee . . . catchee monkey" approach. It had taken more than four years of private discussions and negotiations, along with Cabinet sub-committees, Green papers and all-party committees on the Constitution to get to this point in delivering on his pre-election referendum promise, and there was a good chance the proposition would carry.

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Threatened suicide would be excluded as grounds for a termination of pregnancy if the proposed legislation and the referendum was carried. To legislate for the X case would, in Mr Ahern's words, "go down the road of social abortion" and he wouldn't have it.

The Labour Party was first out of the traps. After the confusion generated by its own abortion debate last weekend, it said No. Ruair∅ Quinn didn't want another divisive referendum campaign. The party supported a purely legislative approach.

As all eyes swivelled to Fine Gael, where Michael Noonan had just returned from the United States, the party bought time.

Gay Mitchell announced that careful consideration would be given to the Government's proposal, but that a final decision would have to be taken by the parliamentary party.

Last time out, it was John Bruton's late decision to oppose the referendum which sank Albert Reynolds, when initial opinion polls suggested the referendum would carry. This time, Mr Noonan will carefully weigh his options - and the public mood - as we move towards a general election.

On the backbenches, those independents TDs who supported the Government and made a referendum part of their demands appeared happy. Mildred Fox, Harry Blaney and Tom Gildea might not have got precisely what they had looked for, but a referendum on a legislative approach was better than none at all.

Jackie Healy-Rae wasn't really bothered by semantics and semantics was what it was all about. The word "abortion" would become what the Taoiseach and the Medical Council meant it to mean, nothing more and nothing less.

The Bill defined abortion as the "intentional destruction by any means of unborn human life after implantation in the womb of a woman".

However it then declared the ending of such life through medical procedure in an approved place, so as to prevent a real and substantial risk of loss of a woman's life, did not constitute abortion. Neither did the use of IUDs or the morning-after pill.

For all intents and purposes, the approach being taken by the Government - apart from the legislative flourish - is similar to the referendum advanced by Albert Reynolds and Fianna Fβil in 1992 and rejected by the electorate.

The difference on this occasion is that the Progressive Democrats are still on board. In 1992, the collapse of the coalition government caused Des O'Malley to round on his former colleagues and oppose the referendum.

The other shift is that the Medical Council, which effectively stymied legislation on the X case after the 1992 referendum, has moderated its ethical guidelines. In spite of that, the possibility remains of sharp disagreements within the profession.

Mr Hanafin's group is providing support from outside the political process. There is every expectation the Roman Catholic Hierarchy will abandon the semi-neutral stance it took in 1992 and come on board.

Back then, the Archbishop of Dublin, Dr Desmond Connell, differed with his colleagues and vociferously opposed the referendum.

This time, as Cardinal, he may adopt a more benign approach.