Fianna Fáil will use its ardfheis to try and regain lost ground, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
There is worry and gloom among Fianna Fáil Ministers, backbenchers and activists this weekend. There are just 18 months left before they must attempt to win a third term. Right now, the party's election prospects seem bleak and time is starting to run out.
It wasn't supposed to be like this. This was to be the ardfheis at which victory was back on the agenda once more. In the post-2002 election period as the electorate began to believe the Government had concealed economic difficulties to con voters into re-electing them, Fianna Fáil strategists predicted two difficult years for the party.
Spending allocations would be cut, new charges would be introduced, Ministers would seek to explain that these weren't really cuts at all and the party would take a big hit in the 2004 Local Government and European Parliament elections. But then things would look up and everything would come right.
After the hardship and the furore about alleged broken promises economic prospects would be secure, spending on health and transport would start producing obvious results, SSIA accounts would start being paid out and the party would rise again.
However, it hasn't happened like that. They suffered a setback in the summer of 2004, winning just 32 per cent of the national vote compared to 41 per cent in 2002, losing a third of their European Parliament seats and shedding 80 local authority seats. Within days of those election results, Ministers were on the airwaves promising to "listen" to the voters. Government sources were briefing journalists that they were truly about to change their ways and care about people, not just economic figures.
The Cabinet was reshuffled, Charlie McCreevy sent to Brussels and his ideological opposite, the Rev Seán Healy, preached caring and sharing from a Fianna Fáil pulpit at Inchydoney. Brian Cowen produced estimates and a budget giving substantial funds to disability services, tax cuts favouring the less well off and more funding for threatened Community Employment schemes.
Polls in January and March showed the Coalition parties were approaching the levels required for a triumphant return to government. But the coming together of Fine Gael and Labour, combined with negative publicity over issues such as the nursing home overcharging scandal, put the trend into reverse.
In August, Ministers and party strategists had a series of informal meetings . They agreed that the problem was that their image of competence was being eroded. It had to be restored through decisive, good government. Then everything started to go wrong as the Government suffered hit after hit.
The Rip-Off Republic television series tapped into a public mood in the prosperous new Ireland. The extraordinary spending on the still non-functioning PPARS computer system in the Department of Health was followed by a series of other reports of overspending. The most recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll showed not only Fianna Fáil and the Government falling back to very low levels, it showed that on what was always their big strength - the handling of the economy - voters now would trust the alternative coalition of Fine Gael and Labour just as much as they do this Government.
The consolation for the Coalition is that the Opposition has not yet capitalised on this. Despite low levels of Fianna Fáil support and of satisfaction with the Government, polls show the Opposition parties short of the support required to form a government. Yesterday, Brian Cowen went on the attack, criticising Fine Gael and Labour for producing platitudes not policies. The timing could have been better - this came on the day Labour produced the first comprehensive childcare document from any party.
But there remains a vagueness about what the alternative government would change about the current Coalition's policy direction.
Tonight and tomorrow the Taoiseach and his Ministers will attack Fine Gael and Labour for being all image and no substance. Struggling desperately to get out of the cycle of dealing with mini-crisis after mini-crisis, Fianna Fáil will seek to put the spotlight on the Opposition. Party strategists hope that when the alternative comes under scrutiny it will be found to lack substance and voters will trickle back to the trusted status quo. So far this strategy has not worked. Neither press nor public are paying attention to the charge that there is a policy vacuum at the heart of the alternative. They continue to focus on the daily revelations of wasteful spending, lack of attention to detail, and mismanagement.
The slogan spread across the backdrop at the ardfheis for the television audience this year will be "Unity, Prosperity, Community" - it could perhaps be exchanged for the "Courage, Leadership, Integrity" derided yesterday by Mr Cowen as the Opposition's substitute for detailed policy. However, the words are actually there for a purpose. "Unity" is a tilt at the Sinn Féin electoral threat, saying that party hasn't a monopoly over nationalism.
"Prosperity" is a reminder to voters of Fianna Fáil's claim of having brought it to Ireland.
"Community" has been the Taoiseach's theme of the past year, and signals that Ministers will list improvements to the quality of life that have resulted from prosperity.
But perhaps the dominant theme will be the refusal so far of the main Opposition parties to give details of their plans. Under relentless Opposition pressure for weeks, Fianna Fáil has calculated that the best form of defence is attack.