FG could become the party of social cohesion

Fianna Fáil seems convinced that market research ensured its election victory. It claims that it identified and targeted a sector of the electorate which was sufficient to get its candidates re-elected, and worked flat out to woo it without wasting time on any others.

It cheerfully ignored opinion columnists, leader writers and all other irritating forms of life, because market research showed that they had little impact. Fianna Fáil operated with military precision, ran Bertie ragged around the country, spurned the advances of the panting amateurs, like the barristers it used to rely on, and duly popped the champagne as just reward for its diligence.

Or so the myth goes. What an appealing myth, the idea that the electorate can be manipulated to within a couple of thousand votes. Even more appealing is the idea that the trick can be repeated.

But here's a nasty thought. What if all that military precision just gave the strategists an inflated sense of their own importance? Did market research and a slick stream of soundbites and photo opportunities win the election, or was it inevitable? What if they would have won the election anyway, just because there was no alternative government in sight?

Just like New Labour, Fianna Fáil could not resist crowing about its mastery of the black arts of market research and public relations. The net result for New Labour is that no one would believe Tony Blair if he said it were daylight without first going outside to check. The trouble is, that was pretty much Fianna Fáil's position before the election, so boasting about manipulating the electorate leaves it with even more to lose.

One of Fianna Fáil's big problems is that it is seen as the lads' party, as the masters of cute hoorism. This affects everyone within the party, even the younger, hard-working members who are seeking to leave that reputation behind.

Becoming high-tech masters of cute hoorism is not much help in living down their original reputation and gaining any degree of credibility.

Does it matter, if it works and Fianna Fáil gets re-elected? Celebrity politics may substitute for credibility in the short term, but ultimately it renders the electorate even more cynical and displaces politics still further from a central place in people's concerns.

The short-term results may be fine, but the long-term consequences are disastrous for everyone in the political process, including Fianna Fáil.

De Valera looked into his heart, Bertie looks into a focus group. That makes people very queasy. It is also a high-risk tactic, because if market research were a precise science, no product which had millions pumped into it would ever fail. But they do, all over the place.

There are dangers for Fianna Fáil in believing its own hype. Aside from anything else, now that it has power, it will have to cope with the rougher economic times ahead. Market research and consensus politics will be no substitute for a degree of toughness and willingness to take unpopular decisions.

Fianna Fáil should remember that its success had much more mundane and human roots. It won because it is perceived to have more intuitive understanding of the ordinary Irish person and his or her concerns.

It won because it has an incredibly popular leader, because it was in power when more Irish people than ever before had money in their pockets, and because Fine Gael imploded.

If there are risks for Fianna Fáil in being seduced by the promises of the spin-doctors, they are even greater for Fine Gael. Strategies and spinning lead even more quickly to public contempt when they are perceived as being a substitute for clearly identifiable core values.

The sad thing is that Fine Gael under Michael Noonan rejected many of the things which made it distinctive. It dumped John Bruton because he did not suit many of the front bench's preferred self-image as a liberal party.

In turn, much of the front bench got dumped by the electorate.

Core support for Fine Gael had little to do with a jaded liberal agenda, which is dead as a vote-getter, because most of it has been achieved.

The Fine Gael core vote is older, conservative and rural. Despising your core constituency when you have no obvious other place to go is very, very silly indeed, particularly when they are still the kind of people who canvass, leaflet and bring neighbours to the polls. Not to mention the fact that a significant proportion of younger voters is decidedly jaundiced about the liberal ideals of its elders.

To begin its recovery, Fine Gael could aim to be the party of social cohesion.

There is a sector of the electorate which is selfish and which could not care less if the gap between rich and poor is widening, but there are many more who do care. They can be mobilised.

That could begin with an emphasis on fairness and proper distribution of the benefits of the Celtic Tiger. Redistribution of wealth is pointless if it just leads to welfare dependency.

The Progressive Democrats and Charlie McCreevy would claim that finding work is the essential key to ending poverty. That is true, but it is not the full story.

Other supports are necessary, which the right wing balks at. Take the kids in poor areas who leave school because of the lure of dead-end jobs. For them, the downturn in the economy is doubly disastrous. Education is a key element in any policy of social fairness.

Fine Gael could look at helping to create and support strong families, which provide a buffer against the loneliness and individualism of 21st-century Ireland.

They could reaffirm a commitment to law and order, but with a wider focus on the causes of crime, which include poverty, family breakdown and a decline in shared communal values.

Instead of being perceived as unquestioning Europhiles, they could concentrate on working to remove the democratic deficit, and to do so in conjunction with other European parties which have similar concerns.

Fine Gael has a future, not least because so many of its deputies are now young and energetic.

It does not have to alienate their much-despised core constituency, but could use it as a firm foundation to build for the future.