Is the political landscape in Northern Ireland regressing, perhaps inexorably, towards the bleak days before the IRA ceasefire in 1994? An RUC policewoman is shot and seriously injured in Derry; in Co Antrim, Orangemen defy the hierarchy of their own organisation and reject a proposed compromise on parades. There is an almost daily drift further away from the middle ground; those who will brook no compromise, those who seem intent on exacerbating sectarian hatred are once more, it seems, in the ascendant.
The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, has rightly declared in his statement of last Wednesday that a vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for the IRA's campaign of violence. But he was also careful to underline that the opportunity "just about still exists" for Sinn Fein to join the Northern Ireland talks when they resume on June 3rd next provided an IRA ceasefire is in place. It be that this opportunity finally slipped away in Derry yesterday when an IRA gunman - in a calculated and cold blooded attack - opened fire down a busy street at a policewoman standing outside the Bishop Street courthouse.
Mr John Hume is correct when he describes it as an action which was deliberately provocative; the IRA is aware of the intense speculation about a pre election ceasefire, it understands how sectarian tension has moved up a ratchet. Its response is to add to the hatred by shooting a woman in uniform. Indeed, it may be no coincidence that the Provisionals chose to strike in Mr Hume's home city. The IRA seems intent on making things still more difficult, even for those who are attempting to find a place for Sinn Fein at the negotiating table.
And there are few signs from the other side of the sectarian divide that the healing process can begin. The decision by the Co Antrim Orangemen raises the depressing prospect of another summer of divisive and violent civil disturbances. The optimism that the mediation efforts at Dunloy might serve as a benchmark for Orange parades has been abruptly swept to one side. For their part, the Orangemen might like to invoke civil rights and the right to march where they wish in order to defend their position; but this is no disguise. Their decision was reckless and provocative; indeed the prospect of another Drumcree appears to be regarded with relish by some of their number.
More than any other single act, a credible IRA ceasefire would help to arrest the downward spiral but the Republican leadership no longer appears in the business of building trust. Sinn Fein continues to speak in riddles about its intentions. Indeed, it appears to expend most of it energy these days blaming everyone but itself for the current impasse.
But the prospect still exists - even yet for an accommodation of the two traditions on this island.
The first essential now is for the Republican leadership to meet the challenge presented last night by the Tanaiste, Mr Spring; it must persuade the world that it really wants to be part of the democratic process. Nobody can suspend belief and put aside the evidence of the Provisionals' actions. These are not the acts of people who believe in peaceful, democratic methods. These are the acts of Fascists.