Once the future of the Coalition Government was threatened by the behaviour of John Ellis, he was destined for the long drop. Charlie Haughey, Albert Reynolds and Ray Burke could have told him about it: the way promises of party support and then of qualified support lead to eventual abandonment. Nothing personal. Just that the needs of Fianna Fail are paramount.
It took four weeks for the bolts on the trapdoor to be properly oiled. And when they snicked back at Leinster House yesterday, it was John Ellis who directed operations, still insisting he had done nothing wrong. Even as he stepped out into political space, the Sligo-Leitrim TD was offering to take on any duties the party might wish to place upon him in the future.
It was a brave face for a bad day. The reality of his situation is that Hell will freeze over before Bertie Ahern again offers him preferment. Any chance of a job will lie with a future party leader. But, in the circles where Mr Ellis moves, a new leader might not be such a bad idea.
The Moriarty tribunal and RTE had set the tumbril rolling. Four weeks ago it was revealed that almost £250,000 in debt had been written off by the National Irish Bank for Mr Ellis, rather than bankrupt him and threaten the stability of the government.
This was in addition to £26,000 in debts Mr Haughey paid for out of the State-funded party leader's allowance in 1989 and 1990. It was a tricky one for Bertie Ahern. As one of the signatories of the party leader's account, his knowledge of what went on during those Haughey years was less than perfect.
But then the spotlight switched.
The revelation of the NIB write-off brought furious farmers into the frame. Unpaid creditors bayed for his blood as Mr Ellis explained how the bank write-off had been organised. He alleged that the former finance minister and his friend, Mr Reynolds, had pleaded with NIB for leniency. "Not so," responded the former Taoiseach, initially in scattergun rejection, from the other side of the Atlantic. And then, back in Ireland, he vehemently denied the charge. ail who smiled in satisfaction.
As pressure came from old creditors in Donegal, Sligo, Mayo and Roscommon, and stories circulated about how he had nearly bankrupted some of them, Mr Ellis made a big mistake. He blamed a "media frenzy" in Dublin for his problems and he acknowledged a "moral responsibility" to do something about old debts. It looked as if the controversy might have peaked. And the Taoiseach offered a dig-out when he described the controversies as "things that are really consigned to history".
Fine Gael recognised the depth of anger in rural Ireland and turned up the political heat. Paul Connaughton and Michael Finnucane went to see Mr Ellis and asked him to consider his position as chairman of the committee. And he agreed to reflect on the matter.
But there is no tradition of voluntary resignation in Fianna Fail. And Mr Ellis is no mould-breaker. Encouraged by a few political friends, he dug in his heels. But, having headed off Fine Gael and the Labour Party, he ran out of road. The Progressive Democrats were kicking up. And the game was suddenly much bigger.
Seamus Brennan and Rory O'Hanlon were sent to explain the facts of coalition life to him. But Mr Ellis wouldn't listen. He had done nothing wrong. At that stage, Liz O'Donnell and Mary Harney made certain he got the message by publicly expressing "personal views" that he should resign. It didn't work. He sought solidarity from his colleagues and ignored the renewed overtures of Mr Brennan.
Then Mr Ellis made his second big mistake. He threatened to resign his Dail seat if he was forced to climb down. But it was a hollow threat. He is almost totally dependent on politics for his income. Mr Ahern was not amused.
An early meeting was arranged with Mr Ellis. Even then, the Taoiseach was playing for time; waiting for circumstances to force his hand. And they did when Fine Gael went for broke. They would challenge a vote in the Dail, they said, if Fianna Fail supported Mr Ellis in the committee. The Government parties would be riven on the issue; the Coalition would be undermined.
It was all over bar the shouting when Jim McDaid went to Sligo on Monday and, in Mr Ellis's own back yard, said certain standards had to be upheld and called on him to resign. That intervention ruled out the Donegal Independent TD, Harry Blaney, offering a helping hand. And, within half-an-hour, Billy Kelleher, a Fianna Fail member of the agriculture committee, moved to deliver the coup de grace in the "interests of the party".
Yesterday it was down to a question of: would Mr Ellis have to be pushed? Another meeting with Mr Ahern, Mr Brennan and Dr O'Hanlon was inconclusive. But when the party leadership moved to recruit a lynch gang from its committee members, he finally blinked. Offering his resignation, Mr Ellis pointedly thanked those party colleagues who had given him support and solidarity.