Election speculation is merely stating the obvious

The predictable playground finger-pointing and “they started it” accusations over the next election have already begun between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. It is a taste, perhaps, of what awaits us as the confidence-and-supply deal comes to an end this year, but it need not be so.

Barry Cowen’s statement of the obvious this week – that the deal underpinning the minority Government is unlikely to be renewed – led Fine Gael TDs to accuse the Fianna Fáiler they love to hate of causing instability.

His own colleagues questioned the timing of Cowen’s comments, but not the substance. The pugnacious Offaly Deputy – brother of the former taoiseach Brian – had only given public voice to what the vast majority of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party has been saying for months.

It is a charge that Fianna Fáil is most sensitive to as Micheál Martin’s political experiment of confidence and supply runs out after the October budget.

Why the next few months could define Irish politics for years

---

Fiach Kelly: Sinn Féin’s past hasn’t gone away, you know

---

All or nothing? Parties – and voters – must accept compromise

---

Solving the housing crisis a test of this Government

---

Martin is adamant with his colleagues that he wants to honour what he signed up to with Enda Kenny in the spring of 2016: the facilitation of three budgets, and a review thereafter. The budgetary process includes the passage of the finance and social welfare Bills, which will take a number of weeks after budget day. His parliamentary party is behind this approach.

“The majority view is we need to pass the budget to honour the deal,” said one frontbencher.

Sham negotiation

If there is to be a review of confidence and supply, most TDs expect it to be a sham negotiation to allow for a row with Fine Gael in order to justify an election; a final effort by both to apportion blame on the other for the inevitable.

This will come after Fine Gael tries to persuade Fianna Fáil into talks on a successor deal before the budget in the knowledge that Martin will refuse.

Every time a Government TD or Minister calls for talks on a new deal and Fianna Fáil refuses, Fine Gael will cry instability. But it is an argument Martin can turn to his advantage by countering that he provided the Government the stability needed to introduce budgets, despite quarrels along the way.

He could further undercut the argument by also acknowledging that an election is likely some time in the next 12 months, albeit with a few provisos.

One is the confidence-and-supply review itself, although the slim chances of a successful outcome to that process will become obvious as the differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael widen on numerous issues in the months ahead.

Another is the negotiations on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. Even thought the Government expects significant progress in the Brexit talks by June, or October at the latest, a talks collapse cannot be ruled out.

“I would just hate for the country to be unsure of where we are going with Brexit and have us causing rows about the pupil-teacher ratio,” said one Fianna Fáil frontbencher.

Fine Gael Ministers say they will not linger in Government Buildings if there is no agreement on a successor deal, but surely they also want Paschal Donohoe to introduce one more budget.

In any event, the calling of an election is the prerogative of the Taoiseach, and by acknowledging one is likely Martin can direct responsibility towards Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.

Confidence and supply is Martin's political Frankenstein's monster

An election over the position of former tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald was avoided last December mostly because of the angry reaction from voters to the prospect of trooping to the polls in the days before Christmas. It has since almost become an article of faith that the voters don’t want an election.

But in a time of economic prosperity and relative stability, does any voter – aside from the anoraks who rejoice in politics as a spectator sport – ever express enthusiasm for an election?

Acknowledging that an election is likely when the current deal is at an end does not contribute to instability. Rather, it is a dull opposite: an election when a deal keeping a Government in place comes to an orderly end is hardly controversial.

The instability argument can also be overplayed. During the last election Kenny warned of capital flight from Ireland and other nightmare scenarios if the election produced an inconclusive result. The voters shrugged.

Messy end

If Martin’s goal is to lead a centre-left government, most likely a minority administrated facilitated by Fine Gael on the opposition benches, then a messy end to this Government will damage faith in confidence and supply among the public and squander goodwill with Fine Gael.

It is not just the public who will need to be convinced, but also influential voices in his own party. One senior TD this week said there will not be another confidence and supply of any nature, before adding that debate on the composition of a future Fianna Fáil majority government was for another day.

Confidence and supply is Martin’s political Frankenstein’s monster, its beauty disguised to most but its creator. But the Fianna Fáil leader must take as much care in managing its end and as he did with its inception.