The foundation of Aer Lingus 90 years ago was heralded as representing a new era. It would ensure that Ireland was, according to a contemporary description in this newspaper, “one end of a great chain of air services”. One of its prime instigators, minister for industry and commerce Seán Lemass, referred to the significance of a small, peripheral island having a new international gateway.
Subsequent decades of globalisation and the era of “open sky” policies expanded the depth of Ireland’s aviation scene beyond what could have been envisaged at the time of Aer Lingus’s inaugural flight from Baldonnel to Bristol in 1936.
From the 1970s, Ireland became a global hub for aircraft leasing and aviation finance. In 2024, 41 million passengers used Irish airports, while last year, 36.43 million passengers travelled through Dublin Airport, the airport’s busiest ever year.
In February, the Cabinet approved draft legislation to lift the airport’s passenger cap, after extensive lobbying about constrained connectivity. Many in the tourism sector expressed concern that last year the number of people visiting Ireland, at 6.16 million was down 6 per cent on 2024 levels, but these overseas visitors, according to government figures, still contributed over €5.5 billion to the economy.
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Ireland’s extensive connectedness, as with its broader economic model – including reliance on imported fossil fuels – makes it highly vulnerable to external shocks. The continuing war in the Middle East is promising to entrench an unprecedented energy shock, and this is of particular significance given Ireland’s strategic links to European markets and its strong ties to North America and, more recently, Asia.
Disruption to jet fuel supply is being widely predicted. The International Energy Agency has identified these supplies and those of diesel as particularly at risk from the fall-out from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Ryanair chief executive, Michael O’Leary, has said that if the situation is not resolved, then there are likely to be shortages of jet fuel supply by May. This would have two consequences. One is higher flight costs. The second is the cancellation of some flights as airlines try to consolidate schedules and in some cases trim or cut less profitable routes.
It is likely many travel plans will be disrupted, while the cost of others will rise. For all the inconvenience that will entail for those who have come to take cheap, frequent flights for granted, this crisis also comes at a time when other factors, especially climate change and over tourism, are raising critical questions about the sustainability of travel and connectivity. A difficult summer looms, but the issues raised by the oil crisis should prompt a more searching look at our dependencies, both commercial and personal.
