The new Dáil term begins on Tuesday, signalling the opening of what could be a momentous year in Irish politics. With the current United States administration increasingly hostile towards the European Union, openly contemplating taking by force the territory of an EU member state, Ireland’s historic success in navigating a political and commercial sweet spot between the two economic giants will come under increasing pressure.
No Irish government wants to find itself in a position where it has to choose between Boston and Berlin. But that showdown may turn out to be unavoidable.
While international affairs will overshadow everything that happens, the Dáil is likely to be more focused on domestic politics. Sinn Féin and the other Opposition parties will hammer away at the cost-of-living issue, trying to make gains on the back of public dissatisfaction. Housing and infrastructure will remain key issues.
Inevitably, the political temperature will rise ahead of the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections, expected in May. The two big Government parties are unlikely to win either of these contests. But poor performances by their candidates could still have a political cost. In particular, the results will be watched closely in Fianna Fáil, where party leader Micheál Martin is under pressure after a disastrous presidential campaign.
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Amid all these international and domestic headlines, the risk is that the Government does not build momentum in delivering on its programme. It has ground to make up, with important legislation on immigration and infrastructure delivery lying ahead, as well as the controversial Occupied Territories Bill.
Towards the end of last year, the Government outlined a programme to speed the delivery of housing and other vital infrastructure. This is a multifaceted plan involving legislation and public sector reform and requiring a relentless implementation drive.
It would be all too easy, with byelections looming, for ministers to be distracted and unwilling to push ahead with the required measures, some of which will be unpopular. But the Coalition has to realise that if it does not start making progress now on these vital areas , then there will be no visible results before the end of its term. And if there is not a significant rise in house building, progress in vital infrastructure, a cut in homelessness and a determined programme to improve public services, then the Coalition will stand accused of wasting a major opportunity.
Unlike other EU countries, Ireland’s public finances are flush with cash, for now at least. When the exchequer sums tighten, as some day they will, the State needs to have something to show for it. Otherwise this Coalition – and its predecessor – will have frittered away a period of plenty.
