Less than a week after Mairead McGuinness’s shock withdrawal from the presidential election, Fine Gael appears already well on its way to settling on a replacement. Heather Humphreys has established such a commanding lead over Seán Kelly in pledged parliamentary support that the race may effectively be over before a single vote is cast.
Kelly, however, may be less inclined to bow out gracefully this time. After all, had he stayed in the contest earlier in the summer, rather than stepping aside for McGuinness, he would by now be the party’s standard-bearer.
What has followed since McGuinness’s announcement has been a study in political flexibility, not to say expediency. Both contenders have been obliged to explain why they now covet a role they had so recently declined. In June, Kelly reflected aloud that he was content in Brussels, invoking John B Keane as he wondered whether he truly wanted to trade Kerry for seven years in the Áras. His conclusion was no.
Humphreys, for her part, told RTÉ in May that she had no interest in returning to public life, having retired from frontline politics to spend time with her family. All, it seems, has now changed utterly.
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Fine Gael, which carefully stage-managed McGuinness’s uncontested nomination, now benefits once again from having a bench of plausible successors to choose from. The same cannot be said for its rivals. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin continue to deliberate, with little sign of consensus around a credible nominee. Their reluctance reflects a more basic problem: neither party has a clear candidate who could avoid the fate of the also-ran.
Sinn Féin is reported this week to be edging towards endorsing Catherine Connolly. Should that materialise, and with the route for an Independent nominee narrowing by the day, attention will turn squarely to Fianna Fáil.
It has been more than 50 years since the presidency was last contested in a straight two-way contest. It may fall to Micheál Martin to avoid such a narrow choice being presented to the electorate.
There are strong arguments for Fianna Fáil to enter the fray. First, it would signal confidence from the State’s largest party, which has not contested a presidential election this century.
Second, neither Connolly nor Humphreys (assuming she is the Fine Gael nominee) are unbeatable. Neither has been tested in the uniquely unforgiving environment of a presidential campaign. Each is perfectly capable of the sort of verbal slips or missteps that have derailed hopefuls before.
If, as some in Leinster House suspect, Martin already has a name in his pocket, the only question now is when he chooses to reveal it.
