This week, not for the first time, Donald Trump was accused of cheating at golf. Video footage from a round at a Scottish course appeared to show an aide surreptitiously placing a ball in a more favourable position. The metaphor is almost too easy. In both golf and politics, the US president plays a game in which rules are negotiable and perception trumps process.
Yet even by the standards of his tumultuous presidency, Trump had reason to feel buoyed this week. Two significant trade deals – one with the European Union, the other with Japan – allowed him to claim vindication for his unorthodox approach to international economics. He has long argued that the global trading system short-changes the US and that tough talk and tougher tariffs would redress the balance. His critics, including most mainstream economists, have warned of retaliation, inflation and lost jobs. But, so far, the economic data has not borne out those dire predictions. Stock markets remain steady and recent opinion polls suggest Trump is regaining public trust in his handling of the economy.
Flush with this perceived success, he has pushed further. New and broader tariffs were announced on Friday, targeting countries he claims have taken advantage of American goodwill such as Canada and Brazil. At the same time, he has signalled a shift on Russia, threatening imminent fresh sanctions unless progress is made on the Ukraine conflict.
But warning signs are emerging. Revised labour market data revealed a marked slowdown in job creation over the last quarter. That followed a disappointing GDP report indicating that consumer spending – a key pillar of US growth – is cooling. The Federal Reserve, long a punching bag for the president, may now be forced to re-evaluate its reluctance to cut interest rates when it meets in September.
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The bigger picture remains murky. Few details of the much trumpeted trade deals have been finalised. Implementation timelines are vague. So far, the primary impact of Trump’s tariff policy has been to inject uncertainty into the global economy, not least in Ireland.
The Department of Finance warned this week that the latest round of US tariffs could reduce Irish job creation by as much as 70,000 over the next five years. This is a serious threat, though not an existential one.
The true risk lies in the White House’s apparent addiction to drama. If the remainder of Trump’s presidency continues to be defined by impulse, personal grievance and sudden policy shifts, then this current period of relative calm could prove fleeting. For now, he may feel like a winner. But in politics as in golf, it is not how you start that counts. It is where the ball finally comes to rest.
