Donald Trump’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan has made the world a significantly more dangerous place. As UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres rightly warns, the strikes are a “dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security.” He said there was “a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control – with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world.”
Although Trump claims that the strikes have successfully “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme, their ostensible sole and arguably welcome purpose, it is clear that he does not now intend to disengage. Israel has, as it has hoped for some time, acquired a formidable partner whose continued commitment will be assured by Iran’s inevitable retaliation at US targets. “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” Trump warned. “If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.”
Israel’s purpose, unlike the US, in launching its attack was never solely the disabling of the infrastructure of a nuclear weapons programme. Its objective, largely unstated, has always been the regime in Tehran itself. It has no intention of leaving the job half done.
The leader of Israel’s parliamentary opposition, Yair Lapid, a committed critic of prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, yesterday backed the US attack: “It was the right and correct thing for Israel, Israeli security and global security. It’s a good moment.” But rightly added that Israel should now aim to wrap up the war with Iran, saying that its “main objectives had been achieved.” Netanyahu is unlikely to listen.
Regime change is likely to prove difficult with unpredictable consequences as the US should have learned in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Although the US strikes are clearly in breach of international law, most western capitals while emphasising that they were not involved, and appealing for “de-escalation”, have dodged the issue to avoid antagonising Trump.
Not so his Democratic opponents in the US, who are complaining bitterly that once again the president has ignored the constitutional limits of presidential power by usurping Congress’s authority to declare war.
Within the ranks of his MAGA movement sharp divisions are also opening up between those who signed up because of his promise to pull America out of all “forever wars”, and those who will back him whatever he does. And the polls are showing the president’s performance rating sliding, By attacking Iran, Trump has taken a huge gamble in what is a defining moment for his presidency. The consequences are uncertain and the risks that it could all backfire are substantial.
