The parties in Government face a choice regarding housing policy in the general election campaign which is about to get under way. Broadly, they can argue that the current policy approach is working and promise “more of the same.” Or they can commit to new approaches and the need to do more to tackle the housing crisis.
The publication of new official housing targets, averaging 50,500 per annum up to 2030, does not suggest a bold new approach from the Coalition parties, though we will have to wait to see what they say in their manifestos. But changes are needed, because the current policy is not making enough progress.
The Government has chosen to largely ignore the calls from the Housing Commission for a fundamental reset in policy, which would recognise what is in effect a housing emergency. It is notable that a few weeks ago groups representing trade unions, business and a range of NGOs got together to support the commission’s view. All could see that new approaches are needed.
There is a political dilemma here for the Government parties. The obvious response to any new policy proposals they put forward is to ask why they didn’t implement them when in power. True, new housing delivery has increased – though the Coalition’s claim that it will reach 40,000 this year now looks unlikely. And there has been some increase in registered housing starts, though this may relate in part to builders and developers getting in ahead of deadlines for development fee waivers.
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While the Government parties finalise their approach, Sinn Féin has already published a detailed housing document, targeting an average of 60,000 new homes a year. Its plan and the achievability of its targets will correctly be tested during the campaign, but it deserves credit for the amount of work undertaken in this area.
House building targets are complex. As the Housing Commission pointed out, it is vital not only to take into account the current level of new demand, but also the massive backlog caused by the many thousands not able to afford to buy in recent years, many of whom would still like to do so. And there is a need to replace older houses.
Meanwhile, it is important to build the right type of houses in the correct locations – guided by the new national spatial strategy, due to be finalised by the next government. And a sufficient supply of social and affordable housing is essential.
The complexity of this underlies the commission’s call for a new, small executive body to oversee planning and housing delivery. The Government has given this a cool response, but there is a need for a more comprehensive plan, backed up by an implementation strategy which recognises the urgency of the issue. Otherwise, new targets will be little more than aspirations.