Thursday's further EU summit on the refugee crisis represented a significant shift of focus by leaders . The talk was less about the Union's humaitarian responsibilities, and internal responses to the crisis, and more about pushing back on the external pressures, notably prevailing on Turkey to stem the flow, about tightening border security, and measures to send back "economic" migrants.
The crisis has led to a significant shift in the balance of the relationship with Turkey, giving president Recip Tayyip Erdogan a new and powerful hand in his dealings with the EU. The quid pro quo that he has extracted at their overnight meeting in return for co-operation on the refugee flow included a promise that the EU will “consider” easing visa requirements on Turkish workers, long a bone of contention, and the opening up of a number of “chapters” in the Turkish accession negotiations which have been stalled since 2005 .
It appears that the EU Council also agreed to a "burden sharing" payment to Turkey of the order of €3 billion, a figure quantified by German Chancellor Angela Merkel who noted that "Turkey after all has already spent €7 billion on refugees and has received less than€1 billion".
Turkey, in return, will be expected to improve conditions in the camps, take mesures against people smugglers, and fully comply with a “readmission agreement” it signed with the EU which requires it to take back illegals living in the EU.
The somewhat tentative nature of some of the terms of the deal reflects the difficulties the Council may have in getting the agreement implemented – France, for one, opposes visa liberalisation, while Greece and Cyprus have a habit of opposing any rapprochement with the old enemy. Erdogan's autocratic tendencies do not endear him to the European Parliament.
That conditional quality to the deal was reflected in Erdogan's somewhat grudging response yesterday. He complained the EU had woken up too late to Turkey's key role in stemming the flow of refugees from Syria with which it has a 900 km border, and he accused EU leaders of insincerity in talks on membership. "Ok, but how long have we been shouting and calling? In Turkey now there are 2.2 million Syrians alone. There are 300,000 Iraqis," he complained.
But the deal – most particularly the promise of visas – will no doubt be grist to Erdogan’s election mill. Turkey’s deadlocked parliamentarians face elections on November 1st, with the president’s AK party struggling to restore the majority which it lost in June for the first time in more than a decade.. Their leader’s status as international statesman will also certainly be helped by the surprise visit to Istanbul tomorrow by Dr Merkel.