Televised debates involving party leaders appear to have had a significant impact on voters' intentions with strong performances by Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and the smaller parties boosting their support in the latest IrishTimes/IpsosMRBI opinion poll. Because of that, a final confrontation between party leaders later this week may have a decisive impact on the composition of the next government.
Support for Fianna Fáil has nudged upwards by two points, to 23 per cent, since the election was called on February 3rd. Fine Gael remains becalmed at 28 per cent, while Sinn Féin has dropped by four points to 15 per cent. Labour Party support has slipped by a single point to 6 per cent while Independents and Others have added three points to 28 per cent.
Movements in party support are reflected in personal satisfaction ratings, with approval for Mr Martin jumping by eight points to 35 per cent; Enda Kenny unchanged at 32 per cent; Gerry Adams dropping a point to 27 per cent and Joan Burton' approval rating falling by four points to 25 per cent.
So far, the Government parties have failed to secure an expected bounce for their economic performance and dissatisfaction remains high. The strongest trend in public opinion during the past two weeks, at three points, was towards Independents and the smaller parties. That group now enjoys a support base of 28 per cent.
In spite of that, Fine Gael remains on track to become the largest single party but Fianna Fáil is putting in a strong performance. It has closed the gap to five points nationally; is marginally ahead in Leinster and in Connacht/Ulster but it struggles badly in Dublin.
Sinn Féin will be deeply disappointed by results that show a four point drop in support to 15 per cent, having outperformed Fianna Fáil on a regular basis during 2014.
The Labour Party is facing into a disastrous election, on the basis of findings that put its support at 6 per cent nationally and indicate that it is losing ground in all regions.
Should these figures be replicated in polling stations on Friday – even allowing for a margin of error of 3 per cent – the Coalition parties would find it impossible to form a government, because of the fragmented nature of potential support. Faced by the prospect of a hung Dáil or a second election, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil would come under intense pressure to put aside traditional animosities and form a grand alliance.
For both parties, such an arrangement would represent a poisoned chalice, particularly because of the opportunity Sinn Féin would gain in becoming the main opposition voice. It might also raise unwelcome issues involving party leadership, pre-election commitments and policy direction as the political dust settled.