This is the critical week in Northern Ireland when the old ways of the Twelfth meet the new political accommodation promised by the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. It began with the first Orange parade of the marching season to Drumcree Church yesterday, a completely new parade in the calendar; it will continue with protests on most nights this week; concluding next Sunday with the annual Drumcree march, which has fomented so much inter-communal tension in recent years.
The omens for a peaceful outcome to the traditional Twelfth march seem reasonably good this year. Yesterday's march, attended by between 300 and 400 Orangemen and their supporters, passed without serious incident. The barbed wire and heavy barricades were consigned to the past though there was a strong police and army presence around the Garvaghy Road. The Chief Constable of the RUC, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, noted the quieter atmosphere though he did not dismiss the risk that dissident loyalists could hijack the main parade next weekend.
Despite the huge political advances made in the last year - most notably the IRA announcement last Monday that the first inspection of weapons dumps had taken place - it seems that it will still fall to the Independent Parades Commission to adjudicate on the route of the big Twelfth march next Sunday. The Commission will announce at noon today how it is to balance the conflicting rights of the Orangemen to assert their traditionality and the rights of local residents to live peacefully and securely in their homes without harassment or provocation.
It also seems that all attempts to reach an accommodation between the Orange Order and the Garvaghy Road residents' representatives are about to fail this year, despite the presence of the South African human rights lawyer, Mr Brian Currin, as a mediator. There has been no direct contact between the Orange Order and the Parades Commission during the year though the Order will undoubtedly claim that it went as far as it could through intermediaries. The Portadown No 1 District wanted to enter direct talks with the Commission within the last month but the Grand Lodge of Ireland did not approve.
The Parades Commission was right to ban the Orange Order from walking down the Garvaghy Road in 1998 and 1999, given the unfortunate history of the event and the delicately balanced constitutional forces at work in Northern Ireland. In 1996, the RUC buckled under the threat of Orange numbers after an initial stand-off. In 1997, the strength of the security forces was turned on the local community and the march was forced through. The British Government and the RUC had to stand firmly in support of the first determination of the newly-established Parades Commission in 1998 when Northern Ireland had to endure a week of fire-bombing, intimidation and barricaded roads, culminating in the deaths of the three Quinn children.
In all the circumstances, it will be surprising if the Parades Commission does not make the same determination today to ban Orangemen from walking down the Garvaghy Road. It is to be hoped that the new climate of accommodation, fostered by the implementation of the historic aspects of the Belfast Agreement, will permeate to the people on the ground.
