Martin McGuinness, speaking in Washington on Monday, warned that this is no time to inject "a note of crisis" into the peace process. His words are commendably statesmanlike, but cannot conceal the fact that we are heading into a very difficult few weeks in Northern Ireland.
The Sinn Fein leader was referring to the continuing argument over policing. He also insisted that he remains "absolutely confident" that the IRA will honour its pledge to put arms verifiably beyond use within weeks. Peter Mandelson remains equally sanguine, at least in public, on the arms issue.
David Trimble has rejected considerable pressures on him to set a deadline for movement, but suggested that a time-frame is implied by the IRA's statement issued on May 6th.
Brave words. The hard reality is rather different. Both governments are becoming increasingly worried about the IRA's failure to deliver on the "confidence-building measures" promised in its statement of May 6th. The statement was crucial in enabling David Trimble to lead his party back into government with Sinn Fein. Any appearance of reneging on it would cause serious fallout all round.
Northern Ireland has disappeared from the headlines, its place taken by the seemingly unending revelations of sleaze in this State. But the North has a way of forcing us to take notice, particularly during the summer months. All the politicians referred to above know this very well, which is why they are so keen to allay fears of any breakdown in the political process.
The most obvious threat to peace looms with Drumcree. It is in this wider context of the Orange marching season that the UDA's statement on its ceasefire should be seen. The statement warned that the UFF would "shoot any person" (i.e. Catholic) seen to be attacking Protestant homes in north Belfast.
The Housing Executive has said it has received no reports of intimidation of Protestant families. According to experienced observers of the various divided factions within loyalism, the statement is almost certainly designed to whip up emotion over Drumcree.
The Orange Order in Portadown has already taken the initiative by applying to hold the first of a number of parades on July 2nd (rather than the 9th). Within the order, opinion is hardening. The resignation of the Rev Brian Kennaway, former education officer to the organisation, is an indication of this. Mr Kennaway had worked long and hard to open up the order to other points of view. He was criticised for, among other things, his visits to Dublin. He and his colleagues formed a liberal group which exercised a moderating influence when difficult decisions had to be taken, and their resignation is deeply depressing.
This quarrel within the Orange Order reflects the deepening divisions in the unionist political community over the Belfast Agreement. The threat to David Trimble's leadership has not gone away. The selection of David Burnside, the clever and influential former head of PR at British Airways, as the UUP's Westminster candidate in South Antrim, is the latest of a number of decisions that have gone against Trimble.
It brings a heavyweight critic of the Belfast Agreement into the political mainstream. Burnside has excellent connections in the British media and the Conservative Party. Despite his protests of loyalty to the party leader, Trimble supporters are already concerned at the prospect of Burnside forming an alliance with Jeffrey Donaldson. At the same time, the UUP leader is being subjected to constant sniping from the DUP and other anti-agreement unionists within the assembly. The DUP has raised the murder of Belfast drug dealer Eddie McCoy in order to demand the exclusion of Sinn Fein ministers from the Executive. Peter Mandelson has denied allegations that he is concealing information about the murder for political reasons, but the Chief Constable has confirmed that it bears all the hallmarks of an IRA killing.
It may be that the Northern Ireland Secretary will be able to ride this one out, but what if there were to be other IRA actions of this kind? The calls for the expulsion of Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun would gather momentum, weakening David Trimble's position still further.
The most serious pressure on David Trimble and the pro-agreement unionists comes from the apparent lack of movement on the IRA's statement of May 6th. The organisation pledged to put in place, within weeks, "confidence-building measures" which would show that arms had been put verifiably beyond use. Eminent international figures were brought in to inspect the IRA's dumps.
Peter Mandelson is known to be worried that the leadership of the republican movement now links progress on the IRA's confidence-building measures to full implementation of the Patten report.
But the republican leadership also has problems with its own grassroots, a fact which Pat Doherty spelled out last weekend in a speech in Bodenstown. Sinn Fein insists that any pulling back from Patten will not only render policing reforms meaningless, but will confirm the suspicions of many members of the IRA who already feel that far too many concessions have already been made to the unionists.
We have been here many times before. Both sides are watching, hawk-like, for any hint of a sellout. These summer months, when the tribal argument takes to the streets and villages of Northern Ireland, have always been dangerous. In the very recent past the tensions have precipitated appalling tragedies. We have come a long way, but nobody should underestimate the difficulties that still lie ahead.