The bleak and terrible events that have occurred in Northern Ireland over the past number of weeks should not blind us to the political progress that has been made since mid-1997. It is true that murderers are loose in the community, going about their filthy business, determined to prevent the emergence of an agreed, democratic, three-stranded settlement. But it is also true that most of the political parties are now around the negotiating table; there is an agenda for discussion; ceasefires are formally in place for the IRA, UVF and now once again for the UDA/UFF after a wicked round of killings, and there is an opportunity to secure an historic breakthrough.
Against the backdrop of nightly murders in Belfast and across Northern Ireland, where people - and nationalists in particular - walk in fear of their lives, the political advances may appear to be of little consequence. The climate within the most vulnerable communities is said to be a mixture of anger and fear, which makes it all the more difficult for politicians to discuss those compromises which will, inevitably, be repugnant to some of their supporters. But Governments, and the parties to the talks, have no option but to go forward; to stop or to turn back now, would plunge Northern Ireland into another long cycle of terror. As the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has said: "Those involved have to strengthen their resolve and not be intimidated."
Confirmation by the RUC Chief Constable, Mr Ronnie Flanagan, that forensic evidence and intelligence reports have directly linked the UFF with the killing of three Catholics, was an extremely serious development. It could have led to the expulsion of the UDP from the talks process, had not the UFF announced a renewed ceasefire yesterday. Their statement draws attention to the activities of the INLA and raises the possibility of support from members of the IRA. In the murky world of paramilitary organisations there are people who oppose a political settlement because it would disrupt, if not destroy, a shadowy network of crime, drugs and protection rackets that gives them power and status. Such people, and paramilitary organisations, exist in both communities.
Given the Mitchell Principles, however, governments cannot ignore the overlap which now seems to have occurred between crime and paramilitary politics. The parties at the talks must be called to account and asked to condemn such atrocities. Any complaints, responses and actions by the two governments in relation to charges involving the UFF and the UDP are unlikely to be completed for some weeks. That delay will provide governments and the various parties with a short breathing space within which political progress must be made.
Next week, the talks process moves to London for three days, when negotiations on the North/South strand are scheduled to take place. A discussion paper is at present being prepared by Dublin and London and is expected to address some of the concerns voiced by Sinn Fein following publication of the propositions document. A considerable amount of detail about the powers, functions and responsibilities of North/South bodies is likely to be contained in the discussion paper but, like the propositions document, it will be designed to facilitate and advance the negotiations, rather than provide a draft of any final agreement. It will be up to the parties at the talks to put flesh on the bones outlined by the governments. Given the spate of murders in Northern Ireland and the heightened intercommunal tensions, the backdrop against which the political parties have to operate is anything but reassuring. But the situation is still more promising than it was six months ago.