The growing tension between China and Taiwan is daily becoming more hazardous, as it draws in the United States and becomes more worrying for other regional powers. This military and political engagement is exposing Asia's recent arms race as a factor of instability, which makes the region vulnerable to the dangerous unintended consequences of escalating a conflict in this way.
It is hard to discern Beijings' intent in stepping up pressure on Taiwan ahead of the election on March 23rd. There are ambiguous signals from Beijing. The foreign minister, Mr Qian Qichen, says the Taiwanese do not have to worry about the missile exercises being conducted by China but rather about those seeking independence from China. The campaign coincides with the meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing and it comes at a time when observers report a more assertive political role by the armed forces within the ruling power structure, added to by continuing uncertainty about who will succeed Mr Deng Xiaoping.
There has recently been a definite tightening of Communist Party discipline and control in reaction to the profound social and economic changes affecting the whole country, and an associated heightening of nationalist rhetoric. This is the setting for the escalation of tension, which began last summer when the Taiwanese president, Mr Lee Teng hui, was given permission to visit the United States in a semi official capacity. The decision infuriated Beijing and forced the political pace of the Chinese response.
These are the first democratic presidential elections to be held in Taiwan. They follow last December's general elections. From this process of democratisation there emerges a picture of a maturing political system, which, will be much less willing to reunify with China until there has been a levelling up, as the Taiwanese would see it, of Chinese political and economic standards to match, those on the island. Beijing is cautious about allowing precedents that. might be taken up in Hong Kong, which will return to Chinese control in 1997.
This would explain China's abrasive stance. But it is possible that its actions may have the opposite effect to that which was intended. The Taiwanese government is on record, as being adamant in its pursuit of national reunification and strong opposition to Taiwan independence, as the prime minister, Mr Lien Chan, put it in a statement last week. The outgoing president, Mr Lee Teng hui, who is expected to be re elected with a larger majority, has himself supported that policy. His party has recently split, however, with a more traditional faction supporting a stronger commitment to unification. But they are both opposed by the Democratic Progressive Party, which stands for a genuine independence. The Chinese assertiveness could just as easily harden, attitudes in favour of independence, as the latest opinion polls suggest.
Such brinkmanship has a way of escalating beyond the original plan, especially when there are, different forces at play on the Chinese side in a difficult period of political transition. China's neighbours and international partners, with which it has been working more and more closely together as it develops, must make this plain to Beijing. If its policy is more deliberately designed to use a military option to rein in Taiwan the whole western cooperative strategy towards China would inevitably be subject to review.