An old political hand spots shaky coalition's ability to survive

He was almost gone before Drapier spotted him

He was almost gone before Drapier spotted him. Drapier's friend has been retired now for almost a decade and though once powerful enough in here - influential certainly - he rarely visits the place any more.

He is not unusual in that. Most of our retired colleagues find that while they always get a welcome, Leinster House is for the present, not the past and few enough feel drawn back, except for an occasional and generally fleeting visit.

The friend was grumpy, but then he always was, that was his way, and he was pleased enough to meet Drapier and quick to accept his offer of a quiet drink in the Members' Bar. In truth the Members is about the only quiet place in Leinster House at this time of the year.

The talk of family and friends over, Drapier got down to business. Did the friend see an election looming? The Budget fiasco followed by the broadside from the Central Bank - unprecedented in Drapier's view - has set a few alarm bells ringing in here and Drapier was anxious for an outside view.

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"Not a chance. There is at least another year in it. Maybe longer. This one could go the full distance and make no mistake about that."

"It looks shaky enough to me," said Drapier.

"Oh, it's shaky all right - but so was Sean Lemass and he depended on Frank Sherwin and Joe Len eghan. But he went the distance - or as far as he wanted to go - and gave good government into the bargain."

There was a pause.

"Neither Sherwin nor Leneghan could afford an election and in the event, both of them lost their seats. There was no way either was going to bring down the government and it's the same with the present lot of Independents - they would be the last to pull whatever plug was pulled."

"It doesn't look that way to me," said Drapier. "There is an ultimatum a month and a crisis just as often. One of these days they are going to talk themselves into a hole they can't get out of."

"Will you take it easy," said the friend. "Harry Blaney and Jackie Healy-Rae - both pensioners this past 10 years, both after waiting half a lifetime to get in here, two of the cutest men in Ireland. They'll huff and they'll puff - but cause an election? No way.

"And as for Tom Gildea - I don't know him, but sure, all his Christmases came at once when he got elected. And with the deflector issue gone, why should he want an election? Answer me that."

"What about Mildred Fox?"

"Now that's a different proposition. She's a decent young one and a good worker, they say, but she's more vulnerable than the others. Her problem is that she's not cynical. And I hear she has some head bangers behind her who put her under a lot of pressure. But I don't see the others letting her do any damage."

"But could the PDs not have a crisis of conscience? All this tribunal stuff and all that. Especially if Bertie himself were to be damaged or even drawn in too close to Haughey?"

"Are you joking?" laughed the friend. "What's this that Mary O'Rourke said about the last coalition - glued together, she said. This crowd are even worse - it's superglue this time."

He refilled his pipe.

"I've never seen a crowd happier in office. Mary Harney takes to it like a duck to water. What would Liz O'Donnell do without the daily photograph and even Bobby Molloy smiles the odd time. Michael Mc- Dowell is where he always wanted to be. Wouldn't the grandfather be proud of him? Even Des O'Malley can enjoy himself - being himself and making a good job of it - though I hear Eddie Wade did a take-off of him that even Niall Toibin would envy."

Another pause.

"Not at all. The PDs are fixed up as comfortably as they will ever be. Face a cold and uncertain election, never mind call one? You must be joking."

Drapier noticed that he hadn't mentioned Fianna Fail itself. And Drapier understood. Whatever rows Fianna Fail has will be contained within the party. No danger from that quarter and in the current climate, little danger either of Ber tie Ahern risking a run to the country - or much else for that matter.

Drapier relaxed and changed the subject. "Haven't we done well on the North? That's one problem at least out of the way."

"You've done well," said the friend. "I never thought I'd live to see the day. And it all happened so quickly in the end - so smoothly too. Bertie played a blinder and backroom boys really did their homework this time. Fair play all round."

That wasn't to be his last word.

"I'm not happy though. I don't like all that stuff in Carrickmore. The North doesn't change that quickly."

Now Drapier had one criticism to make of his friend. It was that he always paraded himself as a platform republican while in reality he was a conviction partitionist, with little liking or feel for the fourth green field. He did not have long to wait to have this confirmed.

"Too much hatred, too little room. The bigotry is bred in the bone. Things won't change that easily. I don't like what I see in Carrickmore. Father Denis Faul is too good a man - the best cleric to come out of the Troubles, if you ask me - too good a man to have to put up with that sort of nastiness and intimidation at this stage in his life. If that crowd want a Provo priest for a Provo people, then let them have one."

Drapier was surprised at the intensity. "It is going to work," he said. "Some local difficulties maybe, but it is going to last."

"It will, but not as smoothly as you think. There is more than one Carrickmore - on both sides. There is a lot up there who don't have much appetite for reconciliation and forgiveness. It's not in their nature - and with all these new ministers in their new suits and new cars - you know yourself that for every one happy, four will feel it should have been them. Sure weren't you talking yourself last week about the Godfathers and all that?"

There was another pause.

"Ah, but sure I've always been a pessimist, maybe a bit grumpy too, but it has ensured I've rarely been too far wrong. But this time I hope I am. And I've great time for Trimble and Mallon, and it may surprise you but I think Martin McGuinness will make the cut. I like the way he is shaping up."

With that, he bade Drapier goodbye, wishing him a happy Christmas, a sentiment Drapier now passes on to all his readers.

And next week the Drapier awards - not just for the year, but for the century.