The suspension of the Belfast Agreement is a matter to be deeply regretted. While a last-minute initiative by the Provisional IRA may allow the two governments to reinstate the Northern Executive, the Assembly and the North/South bodies within a short space of time, the absence of a firm date for the commencement of arms decommissioning is unfortunate.
Clarity and certainty were the twin requirements sought from the IRA by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and by the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair. After years of tortuous negotiations with representatives of the republican movement, and determined efforts to create an inclusive political dispensation in Northern Ireland, it was not too much to ask. The Belfast Agreement was being implemented in all of its major aspects bar one. And, as the Taoiseach told the Dail last week, there could be no more fudging on the principle of arms decommissioning.
The IRA has shown itself to be a slow learner in the peace process. Recent events would suggest that it miscalculated on the determination of the governments to suspend a working executive in the absence of sufficient movement on arms decommissioning. It also held that there was no requirement on it to decommission because it was not a signatory to the Belfast Agreement. But no democratic government could operate indefinitely in such circumstances. The Belfast Agreement was designed to draw a line under thirty years of bloodshed and provide parity of esteem and an inclusive executive for nationalists and unionists. An intrinsic part of that process was the decommissioning of arms under the direction of General John de Chastelain. Sinn Fein agreed to those principles last June in negotiations between the pro-agreement parties and the Irish and British governments.
Suspension is not the end of this political process. The Belfast Agreement offers the best means of securing long-term peace and stability and it has already been endorsed by overwhelming majorities in referendums on both sides of the Border. Just before the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, moved to suspend the institutions yesterday, Mr Gerry Adams spoke of a new and significant proposition to resolve the arms issue. The IRA had set out the context in which it would deal with the issue of arms, he said, and he anticipated a positive report from General de Chastelain. There was, indeed, welcome progress that allowed General de Chastelain to produce a second report that was considerably more sanguine than the original document. He told the governments that the IRA was now prepared to consider how to put arms and explosives beyond use in the context of the full implementation of the agreement. This commitment, General de Chastelain believed, held out a real prospect of him fulfilling the substance of his mandate. And he promised to make a further report, as appropriate.
The last-minute initiative was regarded as highly significant by the Government. For the first time, the IRA was talking about "how" arms and explosives might be put beyond use and the context in which that would happen. But there was no timeframe. It certainly did not meet the requirements of Mr David Trimble, who had expected the delivery of "product" in advance of today's meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council. It was, however, a real advance. It built on last week's recognition by the IRA that, although there was no requirement on it to decommission, the issue of arms needed to be dealt with in an acceptable way and was a necessary objective of a genuine peace process. With goodwill on all sides, those positive elements can be elaborated upon in the coming days. It will not be easy. But we have come too far with the agreement to turn back now.