The record of the Irish Farmers Association (IFA) in raising what might be seen as exaggerated fears about European Union proposals is well known. Certainly, the association's dire warnings about the impact of the McSharry CAP reform programme have not come to pass. That said, the association has performed a singular service this week by pointing to the possible consequences of the Agenda 2000 programme tabled by the European Commission last July. The IFA estimates that the proposals, designed to prepare the Union for enlargement, could cost Irish farmers some £150 million in lost income. An IFA forum in Dublin this week was clearly intended as a "wake-up call" for the Government on the issue. The IFA leadership was implicitly critical of what it sees as the Government's very relaxed approach towards proposals which could have severe consequences for Irish agriculture, EU structural funding and the wider economy. The Government, in fairness, has established an inter-departmental committee to examine the possible impact of Agenda 2000. And the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, has announced the establishment of advisory bodies to investigate the impact of the reforms.
But the thrust of the IFA argument - that Agenda 2000 is not receiving the concentrated attention it deserves from the most senior political level - is surely correct. It is scarcely an overstatement to say that the impact of Agenda 2000 will percolate through to every corner of this State. But, until now, there has been no more than a perfunctory debate in the Dail, in business circles and, indeed, in the media about its practical effects. The Agenda 2000 document confirms that this State is now entering the most challenging period of our membership of the Union. Reflecting economic growth, the level of structural and cohesion funding will be pared back - although an initial "soft-landing" is promised. But, critically, the scaling down of these regional funds will coincide with the next phase of CAP reform. The farm commissioner, Mr Franz Fischler, has now embarked on a further attempt to reform the CAP which confirms the drift away from price supports to direct payments.
Mr Fischler is planning some radical surgery with a proposed cut of 20 per cent in the cereal support price in the year 2000, a reduction of 30 per cent in the beef intervention price between 2000 and 2002 and a 10 per cent decline in the support price for milk. To compound the difficulty, these cutbacks will take place against the backdrop of a new world trade agreement which will seek to eliminate export refunds. A great deal of strategic thinking will be required to manage this period of very dramatic change for Irish agriculture. The Government will clearly be anxious to cushion the blow as best it can for Irish farming. Its challenge now is to frame a realistic vision of the likely future shape of Irish agriculture as the Agenda 2000 proposals take root. It might also demonstrate that it is giving the Agenda 2000 document the priority it deserves.