may be that the surge of optimism in Northern Ireland which accompanied the Orange Order's magnanimous decision to postpone or re-route contentious marches is about to give way to a more familiar mood of weary resignation. The omens are hardly propitious: the refusal by the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, to accept the British-Irish decommissioning paper after his talks in Downing Street yesterday, has moved the Stormont talks process perilously close to a crisis. The British Government has fixed next Wednesday as the deadline for agreement on decommissioning in the hope that this will preface the beginning of substantive talks in mid-September. But the Ulster Unionists' continued insistence on the need for some actual surrender of arms on entry by Sinn Fein to the talks process, and parallel decommissioning once they are underway, has cast serious doubt on the feasibility of any such timetable. It is not difficult to appreciate some of Mr Trimble's concerns about the bona fides of Sinn Fein. The party has continued to talk about peace and to wring every possible concession that it can from the British government, while the IRA continues its murderous campaign in Lurgan and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Mr Trimble's room for manoeuvre is also narrowed by the refusal of the other unionist parties to brook any compromise on the decommissioning issue.
The hope must be that the impasse over this issue is removed before next Wednesday. When they meet today, both the Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Burke, will no doubt explore how some of Mr Trimble's concerns can be assuaged, although the Government will be reluctant to alter the delicate balance of the decommissioning paper for fear of further isolating Sinn Fein. And there is always a possibility that substantial progress can be achieved at next Monday's meeting between Mr Trimble and Mr Blair. There is a strong sense that a moment of truth is at hand for mainstream unionism. If Mr Trimble decides to support the talks process he will gain the opportunity to shape and mould the outcome of negotiations. But if he collapses the process or makes it unworkable, he can only respond to the initiatives of both governments. The choice facing Sinn Fein is equally stark. More than any other single act, an unequivocal IRA ceasefire would transform the political atmosphere in the North and provide the basis for meaningful and substantive talks. The question now is whether the republican movement has the quality of leadership required to climb out of the trenches and to move the situation forward. There can be no more excuses: Washington Three - the requirement for prior decommissioning - has been abandoned; Sinn Fein now has a clear entree into the talks and a fixed timetable for their completion. We are moving into a critical juncture for Northern Ireland. The coming weeks should tell whether the compromise by the Orange Order heralds a new era in the North - or whether there will be a relapse into a further cycle of sectarianism and violence.