Two years and one week after the electorate - North and South - overwhelmingly ratified its provisions in referendums, the Belfast Agreement is to become fully effective. The Northern Secretary of State, Mr Mandelson, has signed the Devolution Order to allow the Northern institutions to be restored from midnight. The Northern Ireland Executive will be re-established on Thursday and the North/South implementation bodies shortly thereafter. The IRA will, within weeks, begin the process of putting arms completely and verifiably beyond use.
The Belfast Agreement, a vehicle of hope for a majority of the people on this island, will proceed to implementation. After many stops and false starts, however, it will get under way with a whimper. The new dispensation is set to come into being with a sense of relief, rather than celebration.
For all of that, the resolution of Mr David Trimble must be acknowledged in putting his leadership on the line to secure the right outcome from the Ulster Unionist Council's meeting at the Waterfront Hall on Saturday. He has learned some lessons over the last two years. He fought a tough campaign focused on the issue of the IRA's offer to put its arms beyond use for the first time in its history. He also won an unfettered mandate to proceed with the implementation of the agreement - free this time from the conditionality which has circumscribed him in the past.
The closeness of the vote - 53 per cent to 47 per cent - in the UUC's ruling body is a measure of the division within the unionist community on the way forward. The issue was straightforward on this occasion: to go back into government with Sinn Fein on the basis that the IRA would put its arms beyond use completely or to wait in the wilderness for the unilateral decommissioning of weapons. The tight result poses a new challenge for Mr Trimble. He must work a good deal harder to convince his community that he has recommended the right course. He must work on rebuilding party unity. He must be assiduous about putting consolidating measures in place.
All parties to the agreement will now watch closely to ensure that the Republican movement honours its side of the compromise brokered on the devolution/ decommissioning crux. With the restoration of the Northern institutions in coming days, there must be no backsliding by the IRA on its commitment in the statement of May 6th. Frequent assertions that the IRA are models of truthfulness are not borne out in all circumstances. The IRA has said that its leadership will initiate a process that will completely and verifiably put IRA arms beyond use. The two independent assessors, Mr Ramaphosa and Mr Ahtissaari, are already in situ for the task.
With the path now cleared for the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement, it must be acknowledged that the British Government's decision to suspend the Northern institutions last February has been, in some measure, vindicated. If the controversial suspension had not happened, the IRA would not have come forward with its arms offer, Mr Trimble would not have been in a position to go back to the UUC, and the principle of guns-for-government would still be in deadlock. It is now imperative that all aspects of the Belfast Agreement are honoured in the letter and the spirit.