There was one line in the survey on the housing market published during the week by the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) that was really striking. It was that just 6 per cent of its members – made up of estate agents, auctioneers and surveyors across the State – believed that house prices now represented “fair value” for purchasers. Of the rest, 56 per cent felt prices were expensive while 36 per cent felt they were very expensive. On average, however, they still expected a 5 per cent rise in prices this year.
This is the Irish housing market. Pretty much everyone feels prices are overvalued, but prices keep heading higher. House prices can remain out of line with the economic “fundamentals” for long periods of course – just look at what happened between 2005 and 2008. Right now, there are enough people able to pay higher prices which, along with insufficient supply, keeps prices on the rise. And this leaves first-time buyers tying themselves in knots, borrowing from parents and working all hours to get on this shaky looking property ladder.
In this game of Irish property roulette, they are betting that the market will remain firm – at least for a few years – and that they will keep their job and increase their earnings. Pretty much everyone agrees that they are paying too much. But with a rental market where costs are astronomical and new supply is aimed at tech high flyers, they don’t have a lot of options – bar staying in the back bedroom at home.
Interestingly, while they expect prices to rise this year, two-thirds of those surveyed also felt they would “level off soon” while 18 per cent believed they had already peaked. A recent Daft.ie survey, while showing prices still rising in most areas, picked up a fall of just over 2 per cent in the values at which deals were actually done in Dublin in the first half of 2026, compared with the same period last year, attributed in part to some increase in apartment and new home supply. Whether this is the first sign of a turn in the market remains to be seen.
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Buyers fall into two main baskets, reflecting Ireland’s two economies. The better-off set, working in technology, professional services and management, can bid on the swankier second-hand properties, leading to fierce competition in some areas and deals where the prices paid are raising eyebrows in property circles. They typically have equity from their existing homes, high earnings and, in some cases, share options which can be cashed in. All this is needed to bid in the €1 million plus range now typical in the leafier suburbs.
Those on more ordinary salaries have typically had to delay their entry into the market. They can go, broadly, in one of two directions. They can look for a “doer-upper” close to the city centre. Or they can head further away – in the case of Dublin to the outer suburbs or the commuter counties of Meath, Kildare, Louth and Wicklow – and avail of the Help to Buy Scheme and perhaps also the First Home Scheme, in which the State takes an equity stake, to try to get over the line. Or settle for an apartment, if they can find one.
Worryingly, the SCSI report shows that affordability is now increasingly a problem for new homes even in the commuter countries. Taking a garda and a nurse, both with 10 years’ experience and a combined income of €113,000, shows how three-bed semidetached homes in the commuter counties are slipping out of reach, even counting in the Help to Buy Scheme – though this couple could still afford a smaller, new terraced home.
This is because prices have been increasing faster than income. The housing squeeze for many first-time buyers continues to tighten and options keep on narrowing. Yet, even so, mortgage drawdowns for first-time buyers reached record levels in the first half of the year. For now, many first-timers continue to find a way to buy. But the need for new supply at all points of the market remains.
The State is spending vast amounts to try to address this supply shortfall. New home completions rose to over 36,000 last year and may get to 40,000 this year, but despite massive resources, there is uncertainty about how fast supply might ramp up over the next few years and where.
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State support for the market is now immense. Recent Tax Strategy Papers pointed out that since 2019, the total annual allocation to the housing programme has risen by more than 200 per cent to €7.2 billion this year. There are also now 46 different tax measures aimed at increasing supply and helping buyers, renters and landlords.
Add in the cost of tax incentives and support for State financing agencies and Ireland must be spending €10 billion plus annually on housing. But no one is sure what will be delivered, and there are doubts about how quickly supply will ramp up. There are real questions about the capacity of the State to pull the scores of bodies, agencies and local authorities together; and the unpredictability of how the private sector – who are being “incentivised” to act – will react.
In response to the central economic and political problem it faces – the locked-out generation and the roulette wheel facing new buyers – this Government and its predecessor rely on a mind-boggling, Heath-Robinson style system of housing delivery.
The appeal of the housing “tsar” – the appointment recommended by the 2024 Housing Commission report to oversee an all-powerful and dedicated agency – was a way to bring all this together. But as departments and agencies moved to protect their patch, the tsar was replaced by a mid-ranking appointment. The Government wanted change. Just not too much.
It would be a brave person who forecasts what happens next regarding prices. If the economy remains strong, then it could be more of the same, despite the affordability problems. But the more prices get out of line, the higher the risk if there is an economic shock from AI, the tech sector, the Middle East situation or wherever. The extraordinary bubble in tech stocks is worth watching with a recent Department of Finance analysis underlining the possible economic costs if it bursts.
In an ideal world an increase in housing supply would see prices stabilise or ease a bit and the market gradually becoming more affordable. But in the rollercoaster world of the Irish property market, things are rarely “ideal”.
