NICE TREATY: The most urgent European challenge facing the Government is securing a Yes vote in a second referendum on the Nice Treaty, writes Denis Staunton European Correspondent.
The referendum will be held in the autumn, probably in October, and failure to ratify the treaty would plunge the EU into a political crisis that could delay the admission of up to 10 new member-states. The Taoiseach hopes to receive a boost for the Yes campaign in Seville later this month when EU leaders will agree a declaration guaranteeing that nothing in the treaty will affect Ireland's neutrality. The Government will not seek any changes to the text of the treaty but it hopes the Seville declaration, combined with some domestic measures, will help to persuade enough voters to change their minds.
The domestic changes include a reform of the way the Oireachtas scrutinises EU legislation that is designed to ensure new EU measures no longer appear to have been imposed by Brussels rather than agreed among the member-states.
Many analysts believe, however, that they key to securing a Yes vote lies less in making legislative changes than in matching the No campaign in terms of passion and commitment. Business, trade unions and other groups are understood to have put together a €2 million fund to fight the next campaign. And the Taoiseach is expected to mobilise the Government more effectively than he did last year.
The consequences of a second No vote for the EU are uncertain, despite the fact that the European Commission's legal experts have been studying possible options since last year's referendum defeat. Even if it is legally possible to proceed with enlargement without Nice, it is likely to be politically unacceptable to some member-states. In the event of a No vote, an emergency summit of EU leaders is expected to consider how to proceed.
The greatest fear among candidate countries is that some EU member-states who are unenthusiastic about enlargement will seize the opportunity presented by an Irish No to postpone the project.
If this happens, there is no formal sanction available to punish Ireland. But observers believe that Ireland would be forced to pay a political price sooner or later.