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Good morning.
Theresa May will today fight a motion of no confidence in her leadership, and she has cancelled her scheduled trip to Dublin. On the steps of Downing Street, May has vowed to fight for her position with “everything I have got”.
The prime minister was due to travel to Dublin this evening, probably in neither hope nor expectation that her meeting with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar would make a material difference to the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
May was due to meet Varadkar at 6.45pm in Dublin, but the chairman of the Tory 1922 committee, Graham Brady, this morning announced the threshold of 48 MPs to trigger a vote in May's leadership had been reached.
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The prime minister will address her MPs at 5pm, and the ballot on the motion of no confidence will be held between 6pm and 8pm.
Recent days have seen the British prime minister travel to a series of European capitals to try and achieve agreement on some form of words on the backstop, the insurance policy to maintain an open Border in Ireland even if there is no future EU-UK trade deal.
The message back to her from figures such as Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker has been uniform: the withdrawal agreement will not be renegotiated, and further clarity on the backstop is all she can expect.
Dublin shares the verdict of other EU countries that there is little that can be offered to May that would swing the House of Commons behind the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Senior figures in Government Buildings believe May is trying to run down the clock and confront her MPs with the trade-offs of each of the options swirling around Westminster: a second referendum and no Brexit; Norway plus and freedom of movement; no deal and economic chaos.
In The Irish Times, Pat Leahy looks back at political declarations that helped Ireland in the past after the rejections of the Nice and Lisbon treaties by the electorate
Paddy Smyth examines what the EU can offer May and suggests further clarity on the arbitration process around the backstop is the likeliest option.
The Cabinet yesterday discussed Brexit preparations, for both best- and worse-case scenarios. Simon Coveney, writing for us today, says Ireland cannot take the ratification of the withdrawal agreement "as a given, and so have to continue and plan for a disorderly Brexit".
May’s future - long in question - will now be put to a formal vote, which will also be a vote on her deal. Yet she has shown no signs of giving in so far.
“She is a fighter,” remarked a senior government source this week. She now has to win her biggest bout.
Confidence comes dropping slowly
Against the backdrop of political chaos in London, Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin last night edged toward extending the confidence-and-supply deal that underpins the Fine Gael-led minority Government in Dublin.
The pair met and are due to meet again in the coming days with Martin widely expected to offer an extension of the current governing arrangement, possibly for another year. Martin has been preparing the ground for his move, and in recent days he took soundings from his parliamentary party.
At a meeting of the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party in Leinster House last night, Martin did not specifically say he will extend the deal, which was initially due to last for three budgets.
Members of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have been meeting in recent weeks to review the deal’s operation up to now, and Martin sought PP assent to move to the next phase - renegotiation of an extension.
The Cork South Central TD told his party meeting the review of the confidence-and-supply deal to date had identified issues in the areas of health and housing, but that Brexit was a serious issue that was causing public anxiety.
Fianna Fáil, he said, has come a long way as a party and is seen as responsible and trustworthy, and he warned the coming period will be challenging for his party. Both statements were seen as the clearest indications of an extension.
“He said he is clear in his own head that he knows what is in the best interests of the party and the country,” said one of those present. Martin further argued that Varadkar needs to pay attention to the needs of Fianna Fáil but highlighted how confidence-and-supply had provided stability in Ireland, and contrasted the arrangement in Dublin with the current volatility in London.
There are some in Fianna Fáil - mostly among the ranks of senior frontbench TDs - who grumble about propping up Fine Gael for an even longer period.
Yet the events of this week provide Martin with the ideal argument for following through on what he has planned now for some time: playing for further time ahead of the next election.
Best reads
The jury in the defamation case taken by Fine Gael senator Paudie Coffey against the Kilkenny People failed to reach a verdict yesterday. Colm Keena says the stakes have now risen for both sides in the case, with a new trial likely to be scheduled in the spring.
On the op-ed pages, Kathy Sheridan argues Brexit is a monument to Tory overconfidence.
Jennifer Bray reports Simon Harris is "disappointed" by warnings from the Coombe that it may not be able to provide abortion services by the new year.
In the Irish Examiner, Gerard Howlin says social media is "a piper pier leading users to a cause célèbre".
Playbook
Dáil
The Health Care and Social Care Professionals (Amendment) Bill 2018 resumes [Seanad] second stage.
Minister for Transport Shane Ross is on ministerial questions.
The Dáil will hear expressions of sympathy on the deaths of former Fine Gael TDs Paddy Harte and Monica Barnes. Questions from promised legislation and Government business on supplementary estimates will then follow.
Taoiseach’s questions and pre-European Council statements are next.
A PMB from Solidarity-People Before Profit, the Anti-Evictions Bill, will be taken at 5.30pm.
The Aircraft Noise (Dublin Airport) Bill 2018 is at second stage, and the Irish Film Board (Amendment) Bill resumes all stages.
The African Development (Bank and Fund) Bill 2018 is at report and final stages.
The Health and Social Care Professionals (Amendment) Bill resumes second stage.
Sinn Féin’s Consumer Credit (Amendment) Bill 2018 resumes second stage.
Seanad
The Central Bank (National Claims Information Database) Bill 2018 is at second stage.
The Employment (Miscellaneous) Provisions Bill 2017 is at report and final stages.
The Social Welfare, Pensions and Civil Registration Bill 2018 is at committee stage, and a PMB from Joan Freeman on Children’s Digital Safety will also be taken.
The Judicial Appointments Bill resumes committee stage.
Committees
The Health Committee has a session on improving home care services.
Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan is before the justice committee on a number of issues. The committee will later hold a session on the Coroners (Amendment) Bill 2018.
Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy will give the Housing Committee an update on the Rebuilding Ireland plan.
The committee on Rural and Community Development has a session on supporting communities and rural businesses around the Border region after Brexit.
The Climate Action committee examines the third report from the Citizens’ Assembly.
Culture, Heritage and the Gaeltacht has a session on the network of regional and local museums.
Transport, Tourism and Sport discusses the Bus Connects project.
The European Affairs Committee hears from the European Foundation for Improvement of Living and Working Conditions.