Residential property prices for October scrutinised for signs of a cooling market

Your business this week: All eyes on property price figures and EU Summit

UK Prime Minister Theresa May standing at the dispatch box last week. The House of Commons will vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement on Tuesday.  Photograph: Mark Duffy/AFP/Getty Images

UK Prime Minister Theresa May standing at the dispatch box last week. The House of Commons will vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement on Tuesday. Photograph: Mark Duffy/AFP/Getty Images

 

Monday

Indicators: Irish construction PMI (Nov), new vehicle licences (Nov); UK construction orders (Q3), manufacturing and industrial production (Oct), construction output (Oct), GDP (Oct); German exports and imports (Oct); US consumer inflation expectations (Nov).

Tuesday

Indicators: Irish residential property prices (Oct), aviation statistics (Q3); Euro zone economic sentiment index (Dec); UK unemployment (Oct), average earnings (Oct); German economic sentiment index (Dec); US business optimism index (Nov), PPI (Nov)

Property prices figures

Residential property prices have been among the most debated economic topics in 2018 and October figures due on Tuesday will be closely scrutinised for continuing signs of a cooling market.

Last month, Central Statistics Office (CSO) data showed that despite an 8.2 per cent rise in prices across the country in the 12 months to September, the growth rate had reached its lowest comparative level in 18 months. Those who have voiced continuing concerns over the prospect of a dreaded bubble, and those struggling to save for a home will be holding their breath.

No surprise given separate mortgage figures last week that showed prospective first-time buyers would need to earn almost €3,000 more a year to secure a home loan. Prospects are even worse for those in Dublin who will now require €5,265 more compared with this time last year.

The September increase in prices compared with 8.9 per cent in August and 12 per cent a year ago.

Nationally, it was the mid-west region that recorded the highest rate of growth in September (21 per cent), while in Dublin with its often out-of-reach prices, the highest level was found in the Dún Laoghaire Rathdown area at 8.3 per cent. In south Dublin, prices crept up by just 4.2 per cent.

The numbers since 2013 still make for alarming reading in a country badly scalded by its relationship with real estate. In that five-year period, the CSO has noted, prices mushroomed nationally by 82.8 per cent and by as much as 96 per cent in the capital since February 2012. October’s figures will give a glimpse into how the story is likely to end in 2018.

Wednesday

Indicators: Irish travel and tourism statistics (Q3); Euro zone industrial production (Oct); US inflation (Nov).

Meetings: SciCom science and research event (Ballsbridge Hotel, Dublin); Annual Dónal Nevin lecture: ‘Brexit in Historical Perspective’ with Prof Kevin O’Rourke of Oxford University (Queen’s University Belfast); Olivier Guersent, Director-General for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union talk on the future of sustainable finance in the EU (Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin).

Thursday

Results: Adobe.

Indicators: Irish inflation (Nov), GDP and GNP (Q3); ECB marginal lending rate; German inflation (Nov); US import and export prices (Nov).

Meetings: ECB interest rate decision; Business and Finance Awards 2018 (Convention Centre Dublin); 2018 Gossett Lecture: Professor Trevor Hastie of Stanford University on Statistical Learning with Big Data (Royal Irish Academy, Dawson Street, Dublin).

Friday

Indicators: Irish balance of trade (Oct); Euro zone services, composite and manufacturing PMI flash (Dec), labour cost index and wage growth (Q3); German services, composite and manufacturing PMI flash (Dec); US retail sales (Nov), industrial and manufacturing production (Nov).

Meetings: Network Ireland agm (Merrion Hotel, Dublin).

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