THE shooting of a woman RUC officer in Derry yesterday, which was preceded by two sniper attacks on British army posts in Co Fermanagh, follows what is being described as pre 1994 ceasefire levels of IRA activity in the Border area.
According to senior security sources there has been a reorganisation of the IRA along the Border under a man who is regarded as both the director of intelligence and operations in the IRA.
This man, who lives in Donegal, is in Sinn Fein but has had a low public profile in the year since the ending of the IRA ceasefire.
His disappearance from the public arena over the past year was an underlying cause of concern to security forces on both sides of the Border, as he is regarded as the IRA's most important tactician and organiser.
He oversaw the operation surrounding the successful mass break out of IRA prisoners from the Maze Prison in September, 1983.
Both this man and another senior Sinn Fein figure in Derry are seen as probably the two most important figures in the IRA since the late 1970s.
The Donegal man is believed to have been the central figure in bringing the ceasefire to an end. His important role in Sinn Fein's negotiating strategy, together with his part in decision making at the highest levels of the IRA, was a matter of concern to some gardai who never accepted that the IRA intended to end permanently its campaign of violence.
The Derry Sinn Fein figure is still reputed to be the head of the IRA, although the titular post of Chief of Staff may still be held by a middle aged Co Tyrone man who lives in the Scotstown area of Co Monaghan.
Senior security sources say the "political" roles of the Donegal and Derry Sinn Fein figures have not deflected them from holding senior positions in the IRA, where they oversee the preparation and execution of attacks.
According to one security source in the north west, it would be unthinkable that yesterday's shooting of the RUC officer in Derry would have been allowed to take place without the sanction of either of these men.
The shooting, which followed two gun attacks on military posts at the Killyvilly and Clonatty Bridge checkpoints in Fermanagh late on Wednesday night, marks a distinct upturn in IRA activity.
It also coincides with reports of extraordinary levels of IRA activity along the Border. Gardai in Monaghan last week found two IRA firing ranges in forestry land near Scotstown. One of the ranges had been in use throughout the IRA ceasefire and the other had been built since the ceasefire and had been in use until days before it was found. Thousands of spent cartridges were found at the scene.
It would appear that the IRA had been preparing for an increase in military activity in spite of persistent hopes that it could again be moving towards a ceasefire. The cease fire hopes had been stimulated by conjecture that the British government might be in a position to override unionist opposition and offer Sinn Fein a quick date for talks in the aftermath of an IRA cessation. In the past week, it seems, these hopes have faded again.
The concern now is that the increase in IRA violence, combined with a major vote for its political wing, Sinn Fein, could precipitate a violent reaction within loyalism. The danger here is that loyalist structures have been destabilised by the ending of the IRA ceasefire and by the mass public disorder surrounding last year's Drumcree protests.
Although the two main loyalist organisations, the UDA and UVF, have maintained their ceasefire, there has been a drift back to violence.
The UVF planted a bomb containing 12 kg of commercial explosives at the Sinn Fein offices in Monaghan town last month. The bomb was well made and equipped with a commercial detonator which was apparently displaced when it was picked up by a Sinn Fein member who was unaware of what was in the bag. If it had exploded it would have destroyed a number of buildings.
It is believed the UDA was responsible for the assassination of Mr Patrick Slane at his home in west Belfast a month ago. It is also believed the UDA planted a primitive explosive device containing 100 lbs of fertiliser based explosive at the Sinn Fein offices in the New Lodge area of Belfast on Easter Sunday. This device was incapable of detonating, it emerged. It is not clear yet which loyalist group shot and seriously injured a Catholic youth in the Bawnmore area of north Belfast on Tuesday. None of these attacks was admitted.
The return to violence, albeit unadmitted, by loyalists which began at Christmas with two booby trap or bombs on republicans has coincided with relatively low levels of IRA activity. The fear among security figures is that if there is a big increase in IRA activity there will be a corresponding increase in loyalist violence.
Senior loyalist sources have said the two loyalist organisations would officially end their ceasefire only at a point where loyalists were convinced there was a major threat to the Protestant population or to the union with Britain. Criteria which could meet either of these circumstances could be met if the IRA escalated its violence and a majority of Northern nationalists gave tacit support to IRA violence through voting for Sinn Fein.
With the onset of the loyalist marching season, there is growing concern that further IRA violence could provoke attacks on nationalists in Northern Ireland, and commercial or political targets in the Republic.