US-Irish relations could be tested by UN vote

When the UN voted by secret ballot two years ago on Ireland's application for a two-year term on the Security Council, the US…

When the UN voted by secret ballot two years ago on Ireland's application for a two-year term on the Security Council, the US voted against Ireland, a senior US diplomat said. The reason: "You can't trust the Irish."

Whether America can "trust the Irish" now in its UN showdown over Iraq could be put to a major test next week, when the US is finally expected to table its tough new resolution on Iraqi disarmament before the 15-member body.

After seven weeks of negotiations, false starts and hectoring from the White House, there is considerable optimism at the UN that a compromise US-British resolution will be put to a vote mid-week.

Ireland could find itself playing a decisive role. When formally tabled, possibly on Wednesday, diplomats at the UN will have 24 hours to consult their governments before casting their vote. If France, Russia and China, which have veto powers, abstain rather than block the resolution, the US will look to the 10 elected members with no veto power for the required majority of nine.

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Much depends on the final wording of the resolution and how far the US is prepared to go to meet objections from France, Russia and some elected members to its provisions.

One of the key issues is the finding that Baghdad is in "material breach" of former resolutions, which, some diplomats believe, could be used by the US as a trigger for war.

Ireland would have no problem agreeing with the US that Iraq is in material breach of previous UN resolutions, though France has argued that by assenting to readmit inspectors after four years, Baghdad is in fact technically no longer in breach.

Dublin would likely have a problem, however, voting for a resolution that would enable the US to start a war in the event of Iraqi non-compliance, without a second resolution, as would be the case if the US-British text goes through in its present form.

The US is not expected to alter its core provisions, which include declaring Iraq in "material breach" and warns of "serious consequences" - a diplomatic way of threatening war - if Iraq does not comply with the strict terms for new weapons inspections.

Russia stood by its demand yesterday that Washington seek explicit UN authorisation for using force against Iraq if Baghdad failed to co-operate.

Israeli defence officials said the Bush administration has delayed any attack on Baghdad until 2003.