The rate of US deaths in the Iraq war has fallen sharply since the January elections as American military leaders tout progress against the insurgency but warn of a long road ahead.
March is on track for the lowest monthly US military death toll in 13 months, and the rate of American fatalities has fallen by about 50 per cent since the parliamentary elections in which millions of Iraqis defied insurgents to cast ballots.
Defence analysts noted that while violence aimed at US forces has declined in the seven weeks since the election, insurgent attacks on Iraqis have escalated.
They added that previous lulls in attacks on US forces in the two-year war have been followed by intense periods of violence. "We have seen a downward trend in attacks," Lt Col Steve Boylan, a US military spokesman in Baghdad, said today, calling the elections a turning point.
"There's still a very good chance that they (insurgents) can do some spectacular events. But the situation does get better each day, all the time," Lt Col Boylan added.
At the current pace, the US military death toll in March will reach about 35. That would be the lowest monthly death toll since 20 US troops died in February 2004, the smallest count of the war.
But that proved to be a temporary lull followed some of the most bloody months of the war that spring.
Analyst Charles Pena said gauging the progress of the war against insurgents is months, if not years, away. "I think what you get is a mixed picture in Iraq," said Mr Pena of the Cato Institute.
"Whatever progress we're making in terms of violence against US troops, it is being offset by violence against Iraqis and Iraqi security forces." General George Casey, the top US commander in Iraq, seemed to agree.
"The average counter-insurgency in the 20th century was about nine years, so it takes time to snuff out the insurgency. And also, I think you know, most insurgencies are defeated by political means rather than necessarily by military means," General Casey said in Washington earlier this month.
The official Pentagon count released today listed 1,519 US military deaths since the March 2003 invasion to topple President Saddam Hussein.
It said another 11,442 US troops have been wounded. General Casey said he was not ready to declare the elections a "tipping point" toward victory. "We're in a good position following the elections, but ... we have a lot of work ahead to get to our final objective in Iraq," General Casey said.