Unity question intrudes on Canada's strong economic performance

IT MAY have been the defining moment of Canada's election campaign.

IT MAY have been the defining moment of Canada's election campaign.

The Prime Minister, Mr Jean Chretien, who holds a commanding lead in the polls, stood before a television audience last Tuesday night ready to answer his toughest question of the campaign would he have recognised Quebec independence if the separatists had won a slim majority in the 1995 referendum?

But before Mr Chretien could respond, the moderator of the French-language debate fainted, while the leaders of Canada's five political parties looked on in shock. Organisers cancelled the debate, letting Mr Chretien off the hook.

The incident epitomises Mr Chretien's good fortune during the campaign, which has been marked by squabbles among Quebec separatists and poorly-run campaigns by some of his opponents.

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When the prime minister called the federal election for June 2nd, only 3 1/2 years into a five-year mandate, he hoped it would be a plebiscite on his Liberal government's economic record.

Since Mr Chretien took power in 1993, reduced government spending has cut the federal budget deficit from 42 billion Canadian dollars to about Can$14 billion.

Interest rates are at 5 per cent, just above a 30-year-low, inflation is at 2 per cent and exports are booming. The Liberals have 177 seats in the 295-seat parliament, which will be increased to 301 seats this election because of population changes.

But the government's plan to herald its strong economic performance during the campaign has been thwarted by the national unity question, a festering sore in Canadian politics. Quebec's former premier, Mr Jacques Parizeau, created an uproar recently when he wrote that he would have declared independence unilaterally within 10 days of a referendum victory in 1995.

During the referendum campaign, Mr Parizeau promised Quebec voters his Parti Quebecois government would have waited at least one year before declaring independence, giving itself time to negotiate a new economic and political partnership with the rest of Canada.

Mr Parizeau's statement which forced his separatist allies to distance themselves from him should, help Mr Chretien in his home province of Quebec, where his party holds only 20 of 75 parliamentary seats.

Although the Liberals are expected to be the big winners on election day, the opposition parties still have plenty to fight for.

The right-wing Reform Party, a regional party based in Western Canada, hopes to increase its number of seats and oust the separatist Bloc Quebecois as Canada's official opposition party. The Bloc Quebecois, which won 54 seats in Quebec in 1993, is losing ground in the French-speaking province to the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives, polls show. The party's leader, Mr Gilles Duceppe, has had a disappointing start to the campaign with uninspired speeches and poor organisation.

Mr Duceppe fired two press aides and the party's bus driver last week after the driver got lost while transporting journalists to a rally.

The Reform Party's leader, Mr Preston Manning, a populist politician whom pundits have dubbed Canada's Ross Perot, is promising voters income-tax cuts if his party is elected, something the Liberals have pledged not to do until the deficit is wiped out.

The dark horse in the race is Progressive Conservative leader, Mr Jean Charest, a Quebecer who is trying to lead his party out of obscurity after being annihilated in 1993, when it won only two seats following eight years in power under Mr Brian Mulroney.

Mr Charest has widespread support but many of his candidates are unknown to voters. With unemployment stuck at 9.6 per cent, Mr Charest is campaigning on a promise to create jobs and to implement tax cuts immediately, now that the federal spending in under control.

The Conservatives and the left-wing New Democratic Party, which has nine seats in parliament, are striving to win at least 12 seats each, which would give their parties official status in the House of Commons.

If an election had been held this week, the Liberals would have received the support of 42 per cent of decided voters. The Conservatives are almost tied with the Reform Party, at 19 and 18 per cent respectively, and the New Democratic Party, led by Mrs Alexa McDonough, would have garnered 11 per cent of the vote.

The Bloc Quebecois would have received the support of 36 per cent of its targeted Quebec voters (which translates into 9 per cent across the country).

Party seats in the Commons:

Liberals, 177

Bloc Quebecois, 54

Reform Party, 52

New Democratic Party, 9

Progressive Conservatives, 2

Independent, 1