Underwhelmed Welsh may opt for assembly

John Prescott was at it again last night, hailing a bright new dawn in which Labour seeks to modernise the British constitution…

John Prescott was at it again last night, hailing a bright new dawn in which Labour seeks to modernise the British constitution and bring government "closer to the people". But as the people of Wales take their turn to decide, most people in Britain at large are finding this latest phase of constitutional reform a distinctly underwhelming experience. Hardly surprising, given the poll findings that a staggering 34 per cent of Welsh voters are themselves undecided as to whether or not they want a Welsh assembly. The return visit by Mr Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, to the hustings followed two visits by Tony Blair in the week since the people of Scotland drew a line under 300 years of domestic political history. The Prime Minister made only one appearance during the truncated Scottish referendum campaign. And his diary last week and this reflects a clear appreciation of the differing cultures and climates in these two distinct political entities.

Queried about the limited time spent by Mr Blair on the Scottish campaign trail, prime ministerial aides invoked "the settled will of the Scottish people" in support of their contention that the Scots simply wanted to get on with the vote. That assessment was mightily borne out on the night. But the people of Wales - who make no comparable claims to statehood, and who rejected devolution by a massive four to one in 1979 - allow for no such easy assumptions.

As the campaign drew to a close, pro-assembly campaigners maintained confidence they would carry the day. And, as in Scotland last week, they claimed an eve-of-poll boost with the arrival of the Conservative leader, William Hague, to urge a No vote. But with a third of Welsh voters apparently uncommitted, Michael Ancram, the Tory spokesman on constitutional affairs, insisted a government upset remained a possibility.

However, even Mr Ancram and Mr Hague found the going tough as they tried to marshal their familiar arguments that the government's proposals point inexorably to the break-up of the United Kingdom. If Wales, even narrowly, delivers itself of a Yes vote, even the most strident nationalist will be hard-pressed to detect an emerging desire for separation.

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The Welsh Secretary, the somewhat troubled Ron Davies, may have brought Plaid Cymru on board with the notion that "devolution is a process, not an event".

And it is conceivable that, in the long term, a Welsh assembly would seek an extension of the limited (non-legislative, non revenue-raising) powers currently on offer.

But from this vantage point it seems safe to say that if the Welsh people - emboldened by the Scots, and anxious not to be left behind as Mr Blair's government redraws the constitutional map of Britain - do say Yes, it is emphatically not to a process which envisages an independent Wales flourishing in a Europe of the Regions.

Hence the final day of campaigning was shorn of some of the darker constitutional worries and anxieties with which the Tories attempted, forlornly, to dissuade the Scots from their clearly-chosen destiny. Instead, the big question was between an assembly which the government maintains can be an economic powerhouse, attracting investment to Wales - and what Mr Hague dismissed as "a roomful of hot air" costing the taxpayer £100 million over the next four years.

As he inspected the sheep for sale at Newport market, Mr Hague maintained the Yes campaign had been steadily losing confidence over the past few weeks. But the accompanying press pack were rather more interested in those repeated whispers that senior Tories are already starting to lose confidence in him, after a number of spectacular gaffes in which he accused Mr Blair of milking the death of Diana, Princess of Wales - and, less than graciously or sensibly, told the Scots they would live to regret their vote for an Edinburgh parliament.

A No vote from Wales would present itself as something of a godsend to Mr Hague and his embattled advisers. And it would certainly represent something of a setback for Mr Blair, who has grown used to sweeping all before him. Downing Street's anxiety would be that a Welsh No could see the demand for devolution to the English regions falter.

And Scottish Secretary Donald Dewar would like Welsh affirmation that devolution does not represent that stepping stone to eventual independence.

That said, Mr Blair's project would be rejuvenated if, as seems likely, Londoners vote next May for a new authority and a powerful, directly elected mayor. And there was cautious confidence last night that - granted a fair degree of indifference to the details of the package on offer - the Welsh people would choose to be part of a process Labour seems determined to carry through, with or without them.