Twists and turns of PR to break hearts

Constituency profile: South Belfast

South Belfast is a constituency where the vagaries of proportional representation are going to break hearts. But which political hearts will be broken is devilishly difficult to assess.

There should be three unionist seats in South Belfast, one for the DUP and two for the Ulster Unionists with, respectively, outgoing MLAs Mr Mark Robinson, Mr Michael McGimpsey and Dr Esmond Birnie favourites to return to the Assembly, although fellow UUP candidate Mr John Hiddleston could come close to Dr Birnie.

The SDLP, Sinn Féin, the Women's Coalition and Alliance must slug it out for the remaining three seats. The SDLP, through outgoing MLAs Dr Alasdair McDonnell and Mrs Carmel Hanna, must battle to hold its two seats while Sinn Féin is hoping to have its first Assembly member in South Belfast through West Belfast man Mr Alex Maskey.

Former SDLP minister Mrs Hanna would seem the most vulnerable although unionist transfers could yet save her seat.

She was elected on the last count with Prof Monica McWilliams in 1988 whereas Dr McDonnell topped the poll. She has worked the constituency assiduously but recognises that Mr Maskey with his previous high profile as Belfast Lord Mayor and his equally diligent courting of the nationalist vote is a serious threat.

Sinn Féin would never have lifted Mr Maskey out of his safe West Belfast seat into South Belfast unless it had done its homework. But there is still risk involved. The party took 6 per cent of the vote in 1988.

While that rose to 10 per cent in the council vote in 2001 it is still four per centage points short of a quota. There should be a middle-ground seat in the constituency if Alliance and the Coalition transfer to each other. Prof McWilliams would seem favourite to take it over Alliance.